X-Message-Number: 33298 Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2011 08:03:04 -0700 Subject: Tyler Cowen on "The Great Stagnation" From: MARK PLUS <> I'd like to thank Aschwin de Wolf for the reference. Tyler Cowen, an economist at George Mason University, has recently published a pamphlet-sized ebook, available through both Amazon and Barnes & Noble, titled "The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better." Given Cowen's rising status as a public intellectual, it has already generated considerable discussion in the blogosphere: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyler_Cowen http://www.amazon.com/Great-Stagnation-Low-Hanging-Eventually-ebook/dp/B004H0M8QS/ http://search.barnesandnoble.com/The-Great-Stagnation/Tyler-Cowen/e/9781101502259/?itm=1&USRI=great+stagnation Parts of Cowen's tract sound like things I could have written about that other 21st Century we thought we'd have by now. For example: "Today, in contrast, apart from the seemingly magical internet, life in broad material terms isn't so different from what it was in 1953. We still drive cars, use refrigerators, and turn on the light switch, even if dimmers are more common these days. The wonders portrayed in The Jetsons, the space-age television cartoon from the 1960's, have not come to pass. You don't have a jet pack. You won't live forever or visit a Mars colony. Life is better and we have more stuff, but the pace of change has slowed down compared to what people saw two or three generations ago." I've had the sense for about 20 years now that economic and technological progress in the U.S. has broken down somehow. I even tried to draw the attention of the cryonics community to this trend circa 1993, but the idea at the time met with resistance and denial. Perhaps after another couple of decades of the Great Stagnation, we can start to have a rational discussion of what this trend means for cryonics. Cowen argues that we've merely gotten stuck on a plateau, and that the U.S. will bounce off of it "eventually" (when? in how many more generations?), and resume the high rates of economic growth and technological innovation seen in the 20th Century. Of course, that cryonics-helpful outcome doesn't necessarily have to happen. "Past performance doesn't guarantee future results," and, "People don't eat 'in the long run', they eat every day." Cowen charges $4.00 for his tract. If you have a Kindle or a Nook, you can purchase it and read it for yourself in a couple of hours. -- Mark Plus Life is short: Freeze hard! Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=33298