X-Message-Number: 3435
Newsgroups: sci.cryonics
From: 
Subject: Current odds of "Cryonics Catches On by 2000" at 13 to 19%
Message-ID: <>
Date: Thu, 1 Dec 1994 17:40:01 GMT

The full description of this claim is as follows:

By December 31, 2000, there will be at least 10,000 persons in cryonic
suspension. A person who has been revived, but was in suspension for at least
one year, counts as suspended. Except for revivals and attempted revivals, a
person removed from suspension does not count. Whether a person is suspended
or held by a recognized cryonics organization is immaterial. Suspension
includes any method of pausing or slowing metabolism by at least 90%,
including freezing, chemical fixation, suspended animation, high pressure,
cooling, relativistic time dilation, or any combination. As of October 1994,
about 55 persons are known to be frozen, some as heads.

This claim will be judged 12/31/2002.

The odds shown in the subject line are the consensus of participants in an
Idea Futures market (the two percentages are the buy and sell prices for
'funny money' bets).  You can learn more about this market by pointing your
world wide web browser to

     http://skyler.arc.ab.ca/~morgan/IF/IF.shtml

To participate in the market, a web browser with forms support is mandatory
(e.g., Mosaic2alpha or later, Lynx).  Instructions for accessing the web
(including email and plain text browsers) are in the WWW FAQ, posted to
news.answers, and the various comp.infosystems.www groups.

The current odds for all questions on the market are as follows:

     $Cdn [misc] 40 - 75%  Cdn$ below $.65 US by June 95
     3SAT [comp] 20 - 40%  Good 3SAT Algorithm by 2020
     Am30 [misc] 15 - 30%  30 amends. to US Const by 2000
     CFsn [sci]   9 - 13%  Cold Fusion
     Canc [sci]  21 - 30%  Cancer Cured by 2010
     Cryo [sci]  13 - 19%  Cryonics Catches On by 2000
     Ferm [sci]  80 - 88%  Fermat's Last Theorem resolved
     Immo [sci]  31 - 50%  Immortality by 2050
     Moon [sci]  35 - 39%  Moonbase by 2025
     Neut [sci]  25 - 45%  Neutrino mass >0
     QueS [misc] 20 - 25%  Quebec separation
     SClm [comp] 35 - 40%  25 short-term claims by Jan95
     SLvl [sci]  19 - 24%  1 m rise in Sea Level
     SSTO [sci]  27 - 31%  Single Stage to Orbit
     Stew [sci]  11 - 14%  Nanotech Stewart platform
     Terr [misc] 45 - 50%  Nuke capable Terrorists
     Time [sci]   7 - 10%  Time Travel
     Univ [sci]  15 - 25%  Eventual Collapse of Universe

Full descriptions and conditions of these claims are available at

     http://skyler.arc.ab.ca/~morgan/IF/claim.shtml

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