X-Message-Number: 5262
Date: Sat, 25 Nov 1995 20:13:08 -0800
From: John K Clark <>
Subject: SCI.CRYONICS The Singularity and Money


In  #5255  On  Fri, 24 Nov 95  Steve Bridge <> Wrote:

                >John, are you under the impression that cryonics companies
                                >keep their investments under a mattress?  

No, I don't think that, and I certainly  hope that nobody thought I was  
trying to criticize any cryonics companies, that's the last thing in the 
world I want to say because they do a fine job. My point is that it's 
unreasonable to expect human beings to perform at a superhuman level, and
that's just what you'd need to do to be a successful money manager during 
the singularity.

                >You are apparently imagining that human beings will be 

                >incredibly stupid for a long period of time and then
                >overnight upload and be so extremely smart that everything
                                >before that last millisecond will lose all value.  

Yep. It's not very tactful, but otherwise that's not a bad summary of my 

                >Unless you assume that the "singularity" will be unforeseen,
                                >instantaneous, and universal    

But that's exactly what I think will happen, the biggest revolution in the  
history of life since the Cambrian explosion 570 million years ago. I don't 
know when the singularity will happen, but like all exponential processes, 
the conclusion will be sudden. If the singularity happens in a 1000 years, 
999  years from now it will still seem  a long way off by most people, 
because an enormous amount of work will remain to be done. However, more 
progress will happen in the last year ( perhaps the  last day ) than all  
previous centuries put together. Everybody will be  surprised at the date 
except for a few who made a lucky guess.                     

                >investments will be shifted into what is valuable as changes
                                >are made, as investment managers have always done. 

Even in stable times like today it takes a fair amount of brain power to be a 
good investment manager. During the singularity when everything is changing 
at light speed....   
                >That's nonsensical.

Time will tell.

                                              john K Clark    

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