X-Message-Number: 5300 From: (Thomas Donaldson) Subject: Re: CryoNet #5284 - #5292 Date: Wed, 29 Nov 1995 21:34:10 -0800 (PST) Ho hum. Very sorry, but I must disagree with Robert Ettinger about the speed at which cryonics will spread. I very much doubt that it will be at any rate close to a singularity. To be quite frank, I think that the notion that it will all happen quickly is the one major error in THE PROSPECT OF IMMORTALITY. (Not that I don't have lots of respect for Bob because he wrote it. But so far events have proven him (very sadly) wrong on that point. And I'll also add that, when he wrote it at the time he did, it wasn't obvious at all just how fast cryonics would grow. I would NOT have counted it an error at that time --- but now we've all seen the events since then). And every one of us, now, early in our involvement in cryonics, have seen just how wrong it has turned out to be when we found that many friends and even lovers with whom we thought we shared our major aims and beliefs were so repelled by the whole idea. Not only that, but (for what it's worth, which may not be much) one thing Toynbee got out of his studies of history looking for regularities was that groups that lasted the longest also tended to grow more slowly than others. I presume that we want cryonics to last for a long long time. And now to deal with the Nanopeople. First, I was not talking abouVirtual Reality as such. It has shown itself to be a very useful technique and probably will become more useful. Nor was I discussing the future possibilities for computing. I was talking about responsibility and reality. First, the little essay on "what is reality" misses the point entirely. It's not a matter of what people think. As I said before, we know that we are in Reality when something happens that all our expectations and theories could not have predicted --- whether that be good or bad. Dreams are not reality, nor is Virtual Reality reality. And anyone who thinks that we will ever understand reality so well that we can simply produce a virtual computer version of it will find themselves badly mistaken. I am saying that now, in 1995, but it is one of the very few statements I feel happy about making for the indefinite future, too. Perhaps when they waken with a shock from their computer dream, 2000 years from now, they will remember this prediction -- just before their destruction. Again, I'm sure that we can progressively devise stronger and stronger protections for ourselves. But a corollary of the point about reality which I just made is that none of these protections will be permanently and forever impregnable. WE will best remain alive not by shelving off the watch over reality to someone else or someTHING else, but by keeping our own watch for ourselves --- however many tools we use to help us. I became a cryonicist not because I WANTED someone to watch over me while I waited to be revived, but because there was no other way. Daddy is gone now and you will not find him anywhere: not in your computers, your robots, your metaphysics, your nanotechnology, your megatechnology. And Mommy went with him, too. And incidentally, as for the really far future: creating another universe, finding ways to become intelligent and aware structures consisting solely of electrons and positrons, none of that really changes this need for personal involvement. It's very unlikely that we could, in any accurate way, map the events of that future world into something that will feel and look like our present world. We shall have to learn the rules of that new world --- and it will be a big help that matter at best will vanish very slowly, so we have lots of time to do that learning. (I am referring here to theories which suggest that the universe will never stop expanding, but that protons will very gradually decay). And for those who want to argue about whether or not anyone will care or bother to revive us, I will point out that if anything that is a reason to support current research, as much as we can, to improve the suspension process and shorten the time of our suspension. I do not know any cryonicist who would claim that the period in suspension for an unknown length of time at an unknown place can be characterized as "safe". It is merely that the only alternative is death. If we come back, the form in which we come back will be a trivial issue --- so long as WE come back. Though I will also point out that just as we will NEVER find impregnable ways to protect ourselves, it follows that we will always have some need for something like cryonics (probably implemented differently, but still holding to the basic idea). And for those who want that service, it will remain an obligation to revive their predecessors. I will of course continue this essay on the meaning of "forever" later. Long long life to all, Thomas Donaldson Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=5300