X-Message-Number: 5319
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 1995 21:23:38 -0800
From: John K Clark <>
Subject: How Fast Will Cryonics Grow?

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I don't know how fast Cryonics will grow, but things can change very fast  
even in the human sphere. I've been reading the new book by Bill Gates 
 and he gives  some examples. Take the sale of television sets:

In 1945 0 sets were sold. 
In 1946 10,000 sets were sold. 
In 1947 17,000 sets were sold. 
In 1948 190,000 sets were sold. 
In 1949 1,000,000 sets were sold. 
In 1950 4,000,000 sets were sold. 
In 1950 10,000,000 sets were sold.

The sale of pre recorded video tapes is another good example, 
starting from essentially zero in 1979:

In 1982 4   million tapes were sold.  
In 1983 9.5 million tapes were sold. 
In 1984 22  million tapes were sold. 
In 1985 52  million tapes were sold. 
In 1986 84  million tapes were sold. 
In 1987 110 million tapes were sold.

I haven't looked it up, but I'll bet you could find the same
sort of growth in the miles of railroad track constructed in the
19'th century,  or number of telephones, or  electrical
transmission lines made in  the early  part of the 20'th century. 
And I'll bet the same is true of internet connections built in the 
last decade of this century.

These things involved objects, not a change in philosophy about
anything as powerful as death, however I can't make up my mind
if that works in Cryonics favor or against it. I find a little
encouragement in the fact  that Christianity grew from a little
known cult to a major world religion in a very short time, 
not bad performance, especially when you consider that it had 2
disadvantages that Cryonics does not have, Christianity has not
a particle of rationality in it, and the early saints  didn't
have the  internet to help them spread the word. Similar speed
could be found in the growth of the Nazi party in the 1930's,
but that may not be the best example as it's decline was even more rapid. 
I don't claim that Cryonics will grow at anything like these rates, 
but it wouldn't be impossible, such things can and do happen.


                                          John K Clark     


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