X-Message-Number: 5324
From:  (Thomas Donaldson)
Subject: Rate of growth of cryonics
Date: Sat, 2 Dec 1995 10:53:03 -0800 (PST)

Hi again!

To John Clark: When I estimated the rate of growth of cryonics, I was not
using figures pulled out of the air, but the actual rate of growth in the
past since the idea was published. Yes, exponential rates of growth can
differ in the particular exponent involved. To say that a rate of growth
is exponential, without giving the exponent (the coefficient of the x term
in exp(c * x)) says nothing at all.

And it seems to me that since we HAVE past records of the growth of cryonics,
it would be foolish not to use them to make such an estimate. I even pointed
out that I was using the highest ever rate, rather than some kind of mean or
average. However my figures came out, they would be much more on the optimistic
side than the pessimistic one. Most of all, it is the past history of cryonics
which convinces me not to look for any sudden surge in membership; the 
calculations about exponential growth are an attempt to see just what that
might mean FOR US.

As for the growth of Christianity, it's far too easy to look back on history
and see it all as a quick blur, happening all at once. Christianity took
HUNDREDS of years to spread through the Roman Empire. It would have looked
quite uncertain what the future would bring to any Christian living in those
times. Of course, if cryonics has the staying power of Christianity then 
we can all breathe easier about whether or not someone will want to revive us.
After all, it's 2000 years later and there are still lots of Christians 
around, some of them quite fanatical.

			Long long life,

				Thomas Donaldson


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