X-Message-Number: 5362
From:  (Thomas Donaldson)
Subject: data, exponential growth, REALITY
Date: Wed, 6 Dec 1995 23:09:22 -0800 (PST)

Hi again!

To Dr. Stodolsky: Yes, the data I used doesn't come up to a very high standard.
I would like to see better data. However, it is the only data now available.
It seems to me to be wrong to ignore data just because it doesn't fit your
standards. Just don't assume that the margin of error is tight.

About exponential growth: Well, a negative exponent is not going to give any
growth at all. And if the exponent is small enough, even though someday 
perhaps in the far future the exponential curve will cross any polynomial,
that may be of no practical use to us at all. The coefficient of the exponent
tells you such things. And a zero coefficient will do nothing.

And about REALITY: It would be nice if Peter and John were to reread what I
wrote. They are still arguing against a notion that I did not subscribe to
nor did I even mention. That may be fun to watch, but if they think that they
are really discussing my own ideas someone else out there might help by
disabusing them of that notion. In fact, it was precisely because I understood
their arguments that I gave the definition which I did -- before they got 
round to stating them. Yes yes, of course of course: no matter how we look
at the world, we only see the results of many processes and even theories, 
many of which will be faulty. If that is the only thing that means "virtual"
then I agree. But my definition did not concern THAT issue at all.

As for "Nanopeople", yes, I apologize because it was a bit mocking. However
even though I've read a fair bit on the subject (and not just Drexler,
either) and even though I and some other cryonicists (among whom was Jerry
White, now in suspension) even had some ideas in that line some time before
the subject became so popular, I totally fail to understand how those who
feel that it will make a massive change, cause a revolution, etc etc and
so on, can believe that. Anyone who reads SCIENCE will see nanotechnology
all around them. RIGHT NOW. No doubt it will improve. (I hope so). And yes,
it is very likely to play a big role in our revival from suspension. But
it will NOT resemble the Second Coming of Christ in any way at all. Just
one more of many technologies that we will invent as we go on. 

That is why I distinguish between nanotechnologists and Nanotechnologists, 
and nanopeople and Nanopeople. Sorry, guys, but you won't find that it 
solves all your problems, or even very many of them. Apparently in Europe
as the year 1000 AD approached various people decided that it was time to
give up everything and wait for the return of Christ. For some reason Christ
never bothered to appear. Now it is 1000 years later, and religious ideas 
are out of style, at least with a large segment of the population. So now
Christ has been reborn in technological form. Ho hum. I really hope that 
when 3000 AD rolls around (and I do hope we're all there, then) that 
we will understand that we must deal with our lives and let Christ or
whatever go do whatever he does when he ignores us.

			Long long life,

				Thomas Donaldson


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