X-Message-Number: 5545
Date: Sun, 7 Jan 1996 02:13:08 -0800 (PST)
From: Doug Skrecky <>
Subject: ET please phone home

                  EXTRATERRESTRIAL INTELLIGENCE
             (from Longevity Report 38 April 1993)
                       By Douglas Skrecky
    
     If contact is made with extraterrestrial intelligences (ETI)
 humanity could conceivably benefit in ways too numerous to describe. The
 mysteries of the universe which might otherwise take millenium for
 humanity on its own to uncover might be revealed overnight. The fountain
 of youth and the secrets of eternal happiness might then become the
 natural birthright of all of humanity. The United States government will
 shortly be commencing a $100 million dollar radio search for evidence to
 confirm the existance of ETI. What are its chances for success? Do wise
 ancient beings who could concievably become our benefactors really exist
 or are we all alone in the cosmos? Is there enough evidence to decide
 this issue? 
      Most astronomers believe that numerous ETI species exist in our
 local galaxy. Biologists are however almost uniformly skeptical of the
 probability of the existence of any ETI species. Both types of scientist
 have access to all available information that could be used to decide
 this issue so their differing opinions must therefore only be ascribed to
 irrationality on the part of one or both groups. There exist only two
 possiblities: either the evidence is inconclusive so that both
 astronomers and biologists are therefore being irrational in their firmly
 held opinions or the evidence is reasonably conclusive and in favour of
 one "rational" camp and not in favour of the other "irrational" one. What
 is remarkable is that a very large percentage of scientists in either
 case must be irrational. Scientists it seems are human also. 
     First of all the existence of ETI somewhere else in the cosmos is not
 really an issue. Not only do galaxies contain an "astronomical" number of
 star systems and not only does our "local bubble" universe contain an
 "astronomical" number of galaxies, but physicists now suspect that the
 entire cosmos may contain an infinite number of "bubble" universes. No
 matter how low the odds are for ETI on a given planet, with so many
 planets to consider (possibly infinite) the existence of ETI is assured
 as long as those odds are non zero. We exist, therefore those odds are
 non zero and therefore trivially ETI does exist out there -somewhere. 
     The only real issue regarding the existence of ETI species is whether
 they live near enough for us to contact them. For this we can reduce the
 question to "Do ETI species exist in our galaxy?". In order to judge the
 odds for such galactic ETI (GETI) we must first select the areas of
 knowledge which are relevant for basing a decision. At present there
 appear to be only two. One area is examining the origin of both primitive
 life and the subsequent development of intelligent life forms on our
 planet and use this information to assess roughly how likely such
 occurances are on other planets. The other area that appears to provide
 relevant evidence is that concerning whether GETI species have ever
 visited our solar system. 
     How did life start on earth? Apparently it was in the sea. While life
 has existed in the ocean dating back about 4 billion years, evidence for
 land based life forms is much more recent -less than 1 billion years. How
 did life start in the sea? One hypothesis that has enjoyed some
 popularity is that life started in deep hydrothermal vents on the ocean
 floor. However recent research has eliminated this as a possibility due
 to instability of organics required for life near vents. *1 However a
 mechanism for generating large amounts of phosphates at least has been
 discovered. Volcanic activity can provide this via vented polyphosphates. 
 *2 In general with so little hard information on the biochemistry
 involved in the origin of life no firm conclusions regarding the
 existence of GETI can be formed with this data. We do know that if the
 earth was either roughly 1% nearer or 10% farther from the sun water
 could not exist in the liquid state. If the earth was slightly more dense
 it would be a hellish inferno like venus, while if the earth was slightly
 less massive the atmosphere would be vented into space and a mars like
 situation would prevail. Even with this information while we can conclude
 that life as we know it is undoubtedly a rarity this does not preclude
 the existance of a substantial number of life bearing planets in our
 galaxy. However primitive life forms are not what we are looking for. In
 order for GETI to exist life must undergo a long process of evolution. If
 this process is gradual then we can be confident that intelligence can
 reasonably be expected to evolve after a few billion years. However on
 earth evolution of life was at a standstill for over 3 billion years
 until just 580 million years ago when oxygen levels increased to the
 point where multicellular organisms could exist. *3 In now appears that
 an important distinction must be made between the odds for life and those
 for intelligent life, with the later being much lower than the former. 
 While this still does not preclude the existance of GETI, it does
 eliminate the possibility of there existing large numbers of ETI species
 in our galaxy. Intelligence is undoubtedly very rare. 
      This brings us to the other fact of possible relevance regarding the
 existance of GETI. FACT A: They are not here now. Nor is there any
 evidence that they have ever visited our solar system in the past. FACT A
 has been accepted by astronomers defending the GETI concept and so we
 will not debate it. Although there have been reports of sightings of
 UFO's in the lay press by unreliable witnesses they are given no credence
 whatsoever by scientists and we will not concern ourselves with them any
 further. Since neither GETI itself nor any of their machine surrogates
 now exist in our solar system this has an unexpected and quite serious
 consequence. The argument runs that if a single GETI species decided at
 some point to explore and even colonize the galaxy they could do so at
 negligible expense by building a slow speed interstellar probe which
 possesses the ability to replicate itself. By thus seeding the galaxy
 with a few such probes, these would it time replicate themselves after
 reaching (some) star systems and then send their descendants out to
 further investigate and eventually saturate the galaxy. No such probe
 activity has been detected, therefore these probes do not exist,
 therefore the GETI species which launch them also do not exist. 
     This conundrum for astronomers has been mercilessly elaborated to
 point where there appears to remain no rational objections capable of
 refuting its conclusion. *4 *5 *6 *7 Technical objections to the
 possiblity of building a reasonably inexpensive self replicating
 interstellar probe have all been eliminated and the feasibility of their
 construction has been conceded by all scientists party to the GETI
 debate. One obvious and seemingly quite effective objection is that
 advanced GETI civilizations might not possess any particular motivation
 for sending probes. Unfortunately this objection has also been refuted as
 in order to be valid it would have to apply to all GETI civilizations
 continuously over the entire period of their existence. Another argument
 defending GETI concedes that while many probes have indeed been launched
 because of their slow rate of speed they would take upwards to a billion
 years to blanket the galaxy. *8 This argument admits however that at most
 only one probe launching GETI civilization existed just one billion years
 ago. GETI civilizations thus are conceded to be a relatively recent
 phenomina. Also independant evaluations of the period required to explore
 the galaxy vary greatly, with the billion year mark being very much a
 high ball figure. Another and rather chilling objection is that some
 deadly probes were launched to destroy all civilizations they came in
 contact with. *9 However this also concedes that while GETI civilizations
 once existed, they are no more. It is fortunate for us that this
 objection itself is vulnerable to refutation. Deadly probes only have to
 miss one GETI civilization long enough for it to launch defender probes
 to turn this scenario into a machine battle which would in time reduce
 the galaxy to rubble. Also the most effective way for deadly probes to
 destroy all civilization would be to sterilize all planets before
 intelligent species can develop, thus we would never have existed. 
     The success of the self replicating interstellar probes argument is
 now widely regarded by most scientists as virtually eliminating the
 possibility of the existance of GETI species, though not of primitive
 extraterrestrial life forms. Like the relentless liquid metal terminator
 robot featured in a recent movie the probes argument is an unexpected
 adversary that self-repairs any holes in its substance created by
 criticisms and is fully capable of crushing any and all rational
 opposition to its conclusion. Even die hard astronomers are now throwing
 in the towel. *10 Perhaps all this should not come as any great surprise
 afterall. Life cannot exist without heavy atoms such as carbon, which did
 not exist in the early universe. These atoms were first created in the
 center of stars and were then only dispersed after these early stars
 became supernovas. Thus our entire "local bubble" universe was sterile
 for roughly the first 6 billion years of its total 12 billion year
 lifespan. Since intelligent life could evolve only after a further delay
 of at least several billion years then as far as intelligent life is
 concerned our universe is not old at all, but is still only a baby. In
 particular there has to be a first technological civilization in our
 galaxy and it appears that we are probably it. If there is to be any
 consolation it is that our biological and electronic descendents stand to
 inherit a considerable amount of galactic real estate. Perhaps one day
 these descendents will meet up with the probes launched eons ago by
 extragalactic ETI, which are even now slowly making their way to our home
 -the milky way galaxy. 
 *1 "Submarine Hot Springs and the Origin of Life" 609-611 Vol.334 1988
 Nature
 *2 "Volcanic Production of Polyphosphates and its Relevance to Prebiotic
 Evolution" 516-519 Vol.352 1991 Nature
 *3 "End of the Proterozoic Eon" 64-73 October 1991 Scientific American
 *4 "An Explanation for the Absence of Extraterrestrials on Earth" 128-135
 Vol.16 1975 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society
 *5 "Extraterrestrial Intelligent Beings do not Exist" 267-281 Vol.21
 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society
 *6 "A Brief History of the Extraterrestrial Intelligence Concept" 133-145
 Vol.22 1981 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society
 *7 "Additional Remarks on Extraterrestrial Intelligence" 279-292 Vol.22
 1981 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society
 *8 "The Solipsist Approach to Extraterrestrial Intelligence" 113-121
 Vol.24 1983 Qu

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