X-Message-Number: 5627
From:  (Robin Hanson)
Date: Thu, 18 Jan 96 13:25:42 PST
Subject: Chances of Revival

Robert Ettinger writes:
>Brad Templeton--without displaying any calculation--expresses a certain
>degree of pessimism (some would call it optimism), estimating or guessing a
>10% chance of revival of today's cryostasis patients. Most
>cryobiologists--without even pretending to make a calculation--call the
>chance "negligible." ...
>most cryobiologists dismiss the probability of revival of current
>cryostasis patients as "negligible" but never offer a calculation of
>probability (or indeed any relevant evidence of any kind)? ...
>The only published statement on cryonics in a technical book or journal by a
>prominent cryobiologist who was not in cryonics, ...
>"There is, therefore, LITTLE chance that a WHOLE BODY frozen SEVERAL HOURS OR
>DAYS after death of the animal could be revived either at the PRESENT TIME or
>at any FORESEEABLE time in the NEAR FUTURE..."  

Perhaps most cryobiologists perceive cryonics advocates as implicitly
claiming a probability of revival of 50-90%, and therefore see us as
frauds, a perception they wouldn't have if they thought we were only
claiming a 1% chance of success.  If only one or two cryonics folks
have published specific probability predictions, perhaps we should do
more public probability estimation before complaining that the other
side doesn't do any.  My home page announces I think I have at least a
5% chance of revival.  Have you big-name cryonics folks announced your
estimated probability of revival?

Robin Hanson    http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~hanson/


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