X-Message-Number: 5627 From: (Robin Hanson) Date: Thu, 18 Jan 96 13:25:42 PST Subject: Chances of Revival Robert Ettinger writes: >Brad Templeton--without displaying any calculation--expresses a certain >degree of pessimism (some would call it optimism), estimating or guessing a >10% chance of revival of today's cryostasis patients. Most >cryobiologists--without even pretending to make a calculation--call the >chance "negligible." ... >most cryobiologists dismiss the probability of revival of current >cryostasis patients as "negligible" but never offer a calculation of >probability (or indeed any relevant evidence of any kind)? ... >The only published statement on cryonics in a technical book or journal by a >prominent cryobiologist who was not in cryonics, ... >"There is, therefore, LITTLE chance that a WHOLE BODY frozen SEVERAL HOURS OR >DAYS after death of the animal could be revived either at the PRESENT TIME or >at any FORESEEABLE time in the NEAR FUTURE..." Perhaps most cryobiologists perceive cryonics advocates as implicitly claiming a probability of revival of 50-90%, and therefore see us as frauds, a perception they wouldn't have if they thought we were only claiming a 1% chance of success. If only one or two cryonics folks have published specific probability predictions, perhaps we should do more public probability estimation before complaining that the other side doesn't do any. My home page announces I think I have at least a 5% chance of revival. Have you big-name cryonics folks announced your estimated probability of revival? Robin Hanson http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~hanson/ Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=5627