X-Message-Number: 5650
Newsgroups: sci.cryonics
From:  (Brad Templeton)
Subject: What investments for the nanotechnology transition?
Date: Sun, 21 Jan 1996 12:09:29 GMT
Message-ID: <>

A cryonics fund must have its portfolio of investments survive what is
likely to be the most tumultuous economic event in human history, the
development of nanotechnology.

The level of nanotechnology required for cryonics is enough to eliminate
the manufacturing sector of the economy.  Some might suggest it even
would eliminate the concept of material non-land wealth altogether.
Even land based wealth will be altered greatly, with almost all the
earth's surface available for development, and new land buildable from
the sea on demand.    However, key land, such as existing waterfront, land
protected by laws and land in important population centers will retain
value.

In the post-nano world, aside from land, wealth will reside in intellectual
property and in skills.   Former manufacturers may find their patents and
designs their only assets.

It is unknown what direction laws would take on this.  Possibly they
will strengthen IP, possibly weaken it.

Will government even survive as we know it?  If not, protection of IP may
be an issue, and of course the government bonds that cryonics funds plan
to invest in may be at risk.

Raw materials will also be of value, as there is no indication that nano
could easily perform nuclear transmutation of elements.   Elements required
for nanomachines might be a very good investment, or the old standards
of gold and platinum.

One would hope a cryo-fund would see nano coming before the public, and
short all stocks and bonds nano will destroy -- but the cryo-fund might also
be way too optimistic about how quickly nano will appear -- and thus short
way before the crash and lose all.

With the economic revolution, interest rates might plummet, making short
term bonds a no-growth investment.  (Though of course your long term bonds,
if you get them before the collapse, will be great.)

In the nano world, with wealth shifting so much, will government bonds
survive?  Will anybody care if the gov defaults in such a tumultuous world?
Will the tax base exist in the nano world to pay off the notes?

If you can predict the nano-crash, you would want to short all securities
that will be destroyed by nano and move your money to precious metals
as soon after the crash as you can, and actually take posession of the
metals and protect them.  Precious metals of use in nano, of course.
Then perhaps invest in the stocks and bonds of companies with IP assets,
land or entirely service based companies -- provided the services are
mental ones, and can't be replaced with nanocomputers and machines.


Thoughts?   Is there any strategy that doesn't risk the principal?
The nano-collapse will come before revival nano, I think.  THe market
will realize what nano will do the first time somebody builds a nano-factory,
and the sell orders on G.M. will go out the next hour.
-- 
Brad Templeton, publisher, ClariNet Communications Corp.	 
The net's #1 E-Newspaper (1,160,000 paid sbscrbrs.)  http://www.clari.net/brad/


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