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Date: Tue, 20 Feb 1996 21:15:23 -0800 (PST)
Subject: SCI.CRYONICS Trans Time Newsletter 2
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THE TRANS TIMES
Life Extension through Cryonic Suspension
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Volume 5 Number 1 February 1996
[SECOND HALF OF NEWSLETTER]
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A Summary of *The Ultimate Resource* by Julian Simon
by Rodney Perkins
In his 1981 book, *The Ultimate Resource* (Princeton University
Press), Julian Simon argues that the economic and environmental
state of the world is increasingly improving, despite the well-
publicized claims of environmentalists and population control
advocates. He examines areas such as natural resources (including
available minerals), food supply, agriculture, and population
growth. Using the best available data at the time, he was able to
demonstrate that each of these areas shows a continuing
improvement. While the book is dated, its core arguments are very
relevant. It also has great historical relevance: it shows how
wrong many environmentalists of the time were.
Simon's general tone can be gleaned from the following quotation
from the book's introduction:
Are we now "entering an age of scarcity"? You can see
anything you like in a crystal ball. But almost without
exception, the best data--the long-run economic indicators--
suggest precisely the opposite. The relevant measures of
scarcity--the costs of natural resources in human labor, and
their prices relative to wages and to other goods--all
suggest that natural resources have been becoming less scarce
over the long run, right up to the present (p. 3).
Since the issue at hand is both available resources, including
food and natural resources, and population growth, I will
summarize some of Simon s ideas in these two areas. Simon uses an
economist s perspective (or more accurately, his economic
perspective) to analyze the issues surrounding resources and
population growth.
Part One of the book attempts to debunk scarcity arguments
regarding natural resources. One of his core ideas is that the
best measure of the "scarcity" of a natural resource at any given
moment is an increase in its market price in concert with other
indicators such as cost and share of income (p. 17). He claims
that the economic perspective is better suited for forecasting
scarcity and costs of natural resources than commonly used
engineering methods. The economic method extrapolates prices of
resources from past costs (if the trends can be reconciled with
theory). The engineering method of forecasting involves three
components. First, one must estimate the presently known physical
quantity of the resource on or in the Earth. Second, one must
extrapolate the future rate of use from the current rate of use.
Finally, one must subtract the successive estimates of present
use from the physical inventory (p. 21).
Simon provides a few interesting critiques of this approach.
Technological forecasting of resource scarcity rests on the
assumption that a given (and measurable) quantity of any resource
exists in the earth (p. 31). Simon argues that this is difficult,
if not impossible, to ascertain because there are varying types
of each resource in the earth, which may exist in different
grades and concentrations (p. 31). He also says that new supplies
of resources are often created where none were believed to exist
(p. 31). This would include discoveries such as nuclear energy or
perhaps even extracting resources from other planets.
He says that while analyzing known reserves is a good method of
making decisions on the profitability of searching for new
mineral deposits, they are a misleading indicator of future
availability of a resource (pp. 32-33). He also says that price
changes make a significant difference in the economically
available supply of minerals. A company will only extract
minerals and resources when it is profitable. As such, exhaustion
of a reserve does not necessarily indicate scarcity (p. 35).
Scarcity of available resources leads to technological advances
or substitutions of "dwindling" resources for others. Take this
hypothetical example (my own): If the oil supply really dwindled
to the point where it was scarce in the physical sense (which
according to Simon, it probably won t), the market would force
companies to develop and exploit new energy sources (solar
energy, or perhaps when it matures, superconductivity energy
storage systems). In this regard, he says that natural resources
are not finite in the economic sense; increased consumer demand
leads to increased efforts to fulfill the demand.
Part Two of the book analyzes population growth and its effects
on areas such as standard of living and pollution. Simon argues
that a long run view of demographic history (shown over the
entire development of the human species) shows that Malthusian
exponential growth does not characterize the human population. He
believes that major improvements of economic and health
conditions contribute to sudden increases in population, which
moderate as major productive advances and health improvements
take effect (p. 163). After this initial surge, the rate of
growth slows down until the next surge. He also argues that as
income increases in a country, its fertility rate subsides as
well. This is contrary to the Malthusian idea that population
increases faster than the means of sustenance and continues to do
so until the living standard has fallen to its lowest level. The
causes of this decrease in fertility may include better
nutrition, better sanitation and health care (p. 184). Contrary
to views of uneducated poor reproducing out of ignorance, it can
be shown that people in poor countries (just as in "rich"
countries) adjust the number of children they have based on
available resources. Often, large families may be beneficial; put
the kids to work and increase both your income and leisure time.
He argues that increased population actually has a positive
effect on a nation's economy, educational system, and rate of
technological advancement. He presents modern transportation and
communication systems as examples of technologies that would not
be possible without increased population density (pp. 190-193).
He feels that larger population contributes to increased demand
for resources, which in turn, leads to increased demand for new
discoveries (p. 216).
On the issue of famine, he claims that greater population density
may lead to less chance of famine (p. 63). He says scientific
discoveries made during the late 70's (meat substitutes, new
cultivation techniques) combined with free-market incentives for
farming should contribute to increased food output (p. 68).
Decrease in the amount of land available for agriculture has
always been a concern. This is commonly thought to be because of
overpopulation. Simon argues that population growth does not
decrease the amount of land available for agriculture. He
believes that while more land was available per person in the
past, people did not farm all available land. They were (1)
physically unable to farm all available land and (2) had little
motivation to do so (p. 223). He claims that the number of acres
available per farmer rise when income becomes high, despite
increases in population (p. 225).
Part Three looks into the rhetoric and politics of organizations
promoting population control. This section is weaker than the
others because it makes a veiled attempt to question the ethics
of these groups. From the overall tone of the book, you can
figure out where the author stands on these issues.
Some of Julian Simon's ideas are incredibly optimistic. However,
I do not fault him for this. His data seems to confirm many of
his ideas and his approach is a welcome change from other less
rigorous and jaundiced perspectives. As mentioned earlier, some
of the arguments can only be taken for their historical value;
the book's analysis only covers up to 1980. *The Ultimate
Resource II* is due out in the Spring of 1996. We will then be
able to see if Julian Simon s theories have held up. I would
argue that some of the basic concepts presented in *The Ultimate
Resource* are valuable regardless. His refutations of
environmentalist hysteria at the time were quite convincing.
Progress in Cryopreservation
by Hal Sternberg, Ph.D.
There has been considerable research over the past several years
to develop protocols and solutions that improve the outcome of
cryopreserving tissues, organs and whole animals. Previously, we
have commented on the various parameters and models we use to
evaluate these cryoprotective measures. Briefly, they include
transplantation of cryoprotected skin and knee joints, etc.,
microscopic contraction of heart muscle tissue, redistribution of
blood upon reperfusion of thawed whole animals, neuronal
excitability, brain and organ histology and morphology.
We have also used the hamster to develop technology to extend the
time and decrease the temperature at which partially frozen
hamsters can revive. Animals can be maintained at sub-zero
temperatures; cryoprotective solutions can be perfused and
evaluated for their toxicity and efficacy.
We are most excited about the progress we are making with regard
to partial freezing of hamsters. Presently, we can achieve
partial freezing of hamsters with subsequent revival upon
maintaining them for two hours in a bath between -10 degrees C
and -2 degrees C. Upon autopsy of one animal, in which a -4
degrees C lowest deep rectal temperature was achieved, the brain
showed unquestionable signs of extensive freezing. Our research
is aimed at improving solutions and methods to increase the time
that hamsters can be maintained in a partially frozen state. The
purpose of this communication is to focus attention on the
concept of gradually improving the state of the art using a whole
animal reversible technique. The hamster model is an inexpensive
and valuable tool for this end.
BioTime Begins Ice-Cold Heart Surgery Study at
Baylor College of Medicine.
BioTime, Inc., (BTIM - NASDAQ) announced plans for a new
collaboration with the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston,
Texas. In a laboratory study scheduled to begin next month,
Hextend (trade mark), BioTime's proprietary artificial blood
plasma solution, will completely replace blood during low
temperature cardiopulmonary bypass surgery on dogs. Working in
conjunction with Dr. George V. Letsou of Baylor s Department of
Surgery, BioTime said that it will test whether complete removal
of the blood at low temperatures during cardiovascular surgery
will allow for improved and quicker recoveries and less use of
donated blood. When these studies are successfully concluded,
BioTime will seek regulatory approval to conduct similar studies
on human patients.
Dr. Letsou stated that "if the body temperature of heart surgery
patients can be lowered close to freezing and their blood
completely removed, we may be able to operate for hours with
little harm to the heart and brain. Neurological damage and
injury to the heart tissue, which is often sustained during
cardiac surgery, may thereby be reduced or avoided. The blood
removed would be stored and returned to the patient when the
operation is completed. This procedure will protect against blood
loss due to bleeding and deterioration of the blood by continuous
passage through the blood pump, oxygenator and the rest of the
bypass circuit."
Dr. Paul Segall, BioTime president and chief executive officer,
said "BioTime is in the process of preparing an Investigational
New Drug application for the use of Hextend as a plasma volume
expander to replace up to 50% of a patient s blood. The work we
plan to do at Baylor will go a step further and involve the
replacement of 100% of the blood. The potential use of
oxygen-carrying blood substitutes to minimize the destruction of
blood cells during cardiopulmonary bypass procedures has recently
received considerable attention. However, especially at low
temperatures, specific oxygen-carrying molecules are not
necessary because oxygen dissolves more readily in the cold and
tissue oxygen requirements become reduced. Hextend, formulated
without a specific oxygen carrier, has already permitted the
revival of dogs and baboons from temperatures close to the
ice-point. Hextend can be manufactured inexpensively and contains
only components which have been safely used in clinical medicine
for the last 20 years."
BioTime, headquartered in Berkeley, California, is engaged in the
research and development of blood substitute solutions and
technology for use in emergency trauma treatment, surgery, the
preservation of organs awaiting transplant and other biomedical
applications. TRANS TIME uses similar solutions in the cryonic
suspension of its patients.
Publicity
Art Quaife was the subject of a three minute feature on the 6:00
p.m. and 11:00 p.m. San Francisco Channel 4 news. The story
focused on the human-interest angle that Quaife now has colon
cancer, and that the company he co-founded may have him as its
next customer. The story was quite favorable.
Art is happy to be interviewed for such stories, but stresses
that he has every hope and expectation of beating the cancer and
staying out of TRANS TIME's capsules for the foreseeable future!
Have Something to Say?
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possible publication in this newsletter. The best way to submit
is to send us the article in WordPerfect, on an MS DOS diskette.
Call us about other electronic formats you may use. We will also
consider typed or handwritten submissions.
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