X-Message-Number: 5784
From: Peter Merel <>
Subject: Miscellaneous Replies
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 1996 01:16:53 +1100 (EST)

Thomas Donaldson writes,

>these doomcriers specifically WILL NOT accept any new technology, and
>try their darndest in the political arena to prevent its development. 
>(Nuclear power in the US is a good example).

Indeed, and of course technological development is the most important factor
to take into account when playing the prophet game. I think the proper role
of folk like Hanson, Pimentel and Erlich is as a caution, that we must do
everything within our power to develop our technologies as rapidly as possible.
That's the only way we will successfully fight the clock.

>I note that the people who make these predictions specifically exclude not
>just technology but other factors too, such as warfare. To do that basically
>turns their predictions into meaninglessness. 

Barring global thermonuclear conflagration, wars are likely to give us
little relief. The largest wars ever fought were fought this century,
and they have been accompanied by the largest population growth ever
experienced. 

>Yes, our technology will improve, thus increasing both our ability to use
>matter and our ability to use it efficiently. Someday basic foods will be 
>constructed in factories, for instance. That day may even be nearer than we
>think; and thus the amount of land will become unimportant. (I'm not talking
>about what would be nice but what might happen -- and if there is land, I'm
>sure that there will still be farms, to produce very high-priced food for
>those who can afford it).

Someone caught "Soylent Green" on the late show? :-)

>In short, what would happen worst case is not that we would lose our 
>knowledge and technology, but that lots of people would be murdered to
>maintain the lifestyle of a few. People just don't work the way these 
>doomcriers say, whether that is good or bad.

The issue is whether we should expect an orderly SG-style decay or a big
Pimentel bust. Judging by history, the smart money is on the bust. The
catastrophists love Easter Island, because it's the best researched
bust, but it seems plain that many (most?) ancient cultures - the Mayans, the
Anasazi, the Toltecs, perhaps even the Egyptian pyramid-builders
followed the same pattern - rapid development, and then rapid exhaustion.

Our civilisation didn't start out all that different to these - our
innovation has only been to spread out faster than we can exhaust our
resources. Trouble is now we've almost run out of accessible new
territory.  Many of the cultures of antiquity have left behind
ecological devastation when they went - the Sahara and the Never-never
are man-made deserts. We are a global civilisation - if we go kaboom,
then we're not going to leave much living to follow us.

I think our task, as technologists, is to do everything in our power to
get to the singularity before we get to the kaboom.

--

John de Rivaz writes,

>The people who are complaining are [not very nice and ...] 
>These people could be dangerous for the rest of us, 
>and provide the true organisational uncertaintly, especially if they obtain 
>dictatorial powers either politically or through some powerful profession 
>or cartel.

The trick, as we saw with our friend Marshall, is not to react against
these folks, not to be scared of what they might do, and not to dismiss
them. Take them seriously, be friendly, open, compassionate - accept
what they say. Often it's something you yourself thought before you
learned what you know now. Then tell them what persuaded you otherwise -
not as a confrontation or to declare territory or to score points - and
let them decide for themselves. Ask leading questions - think about why
they're saying what they're saying - and give them a graceful way to
agree with you.

It's all too easy to jump in with a reaction, take offence and generally
argue. That never works, and will only build resistance to cryonics. Rein 
in those instincts and treat folks gently - that's what gets results. 

That said, why did I dump on poor old Harlan when I was so pleasant to
Marshall? Well, I shouldn't have - there was a better way to deal with
Harlan, but I let my gut-feeling get the better of me. Now I know that 
the next time I post something dubious to s.l-e, there'll be Harlan, just
waiting to return the serve. Stupid of me.

--

Lastly, congratulations to CI - there was a full segment on them on
"Today Tonight", a prime-time Sydney current-affairs show, and not a
negative word was spoken - 100% positive! I kept waiting for the priests
or the medical authorities to chime in with "they're just loonies", but
it didn't happen - just happy-snaps of an Australian who has just been
preserved, compassionate interview with his wife, and tasteful shots of
dewars and what-not in Michigan. Good stuff!

Peter Merel.


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