X-Message-Number: 5853
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 1996 10:54:15 -0800
From: John K Clark <>
Subject: Green giraffe terrorizes town-- Pictures at 11.

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In #5842 On Tue, 27 Feb 1996  Mac Tonnies   Wrote:




                >One of the problems of the "extraordinary evidence" maxim is
                
                >the definition of "extraordinary." Who's to say what's
                                >extraordinary and what's not?                  

You are. You hear a report about The Pope riding a green giraffe
singing  "Louie Louie", if there are lots of razor sharp
photographs and video tapes, if there were lots of reliable
witnesses who were close enough to see the whites of the popes
eyes, if giraffe excrement was recovered and there is a long
article about in  "Nature" then you might want to investigate
this matter further. On the other hand, if the only evidence 
that the event really happened was the testimony printed in 
"The National Inquirer" of a drunk who was half asleep in an alley 
at the time, then you might want to ignore the report and do other
things. How you choose to spend your time is up to you,  if you
pick wisely you will become a great scientist, if you pick
unwisely  you will not be able to convince other scientists of
the value of your work  they will not want to waste there time
on it because it has no value.




                >The sentiment behind Sagan's sound-bite is a good one, but
                
                >it allows any self-appointed judge the _decide_ whether the
                                >evidence is "extraordinary"enough to fit the claim.   



Yes, and that's exactly the way things should be. We should each
be able to do what we want with our time. You think the
paranormal is deserving of your  time, fine, go ahead and study it. 
I think my time could be better spent in other areas.  
                   


              >Thus the maxim  becomes more and more arbitrary and-ironically
                            >enough--subjective  

                   
I wouldn't say arbitrary but I agree it's to some degree subjective. 
There is no mechanical algorithm for finding out about the universe, 
you need stochastic laws, rules of thumb, judgment and a little luck. 
You spend your time on what you think deserves it, I will do the same, 
time will tell which one of us is right.



                                           John K Clark       

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