X-Message-Number: 5891 From: (Brian Wowk) Newsgroups: sci.cryonics,uk.legal,sci.life-extension Subject: Re: Virtue of suffering Date: 4 Mar 96 05:17:01 GMT Message-ID: <> References: <> <> <> <> <> <> <4h6emn$> <> <> In <> John Sharman <> writes: >"Someone who is suspended ..." So were talking about existing 1995 >vintage stiffies, right? I have no idea how many there are in the world. >A few hundred I would guess, at most. It is, I think, reasonable to >assume that in the absence of restraining legislation, the number of >frozen stiffies will grow at an accelerating (though not necessarily >exponential) rate. With the passage of time the quality of the feezing >will improve. That will means that the (a) ease and (b) prospects of >successful resuscitation will in general be greater the later the >feezing takes place. Now if you are in the position of being able to >revive the stiffs let's say 200 years hence - how many will there be? >Millions? Billions? Which end of the age spectrum will they start? Not >the oldest, I'll wager. They'll start where their prospects are best and >their motives are strongest. It'll be a case of "last in, first out". This is very insightful of you. You are absolutely correct. Cryonics will be a "last in, first out" process. As our technology continues to improve, it will culminate perhaps 40 or 50 years from now with real-time reversible suspended animation of whole people. Biological repair technologies will then continue to advance, allowing us to effectively "reach backward in time" and recover people preserved with earlier imperfect technologies. Eventually, perhaps 150 to 200 years from now, I expect we'll get even today's patients back. We'll then see exactly where on the continuum between amnesiac clone and fully- restored person they end up. It's interesting that you have picked up on the "last in, first out" theme, because by doing so you also implicitly acknowledge that cryonics does not have to be demonstrably reversible in real-time in order to succeed. Clearly at *some* point before true suspended animation is achieved, the preservation quality is going to be good enough to get people back later. How, then, does one evaluate the prospects for success when immediate reversibility is not at hand? What you DO NOT do is wring your hands and call it a matter of faith. Instead, you take your photomicrographs, metabolic studies, and electrophysiology studies to neuroscientists and ask them what they think. What are the chances, then, that present techniques preserve the essential elements of memory and personality? With all the facts on the table, I've heard estimates between 100% to a few percent--- considerably better than the 10^-4 personal estimate you give in another post. (Still, this is not good enough, which is why perfecting brain cryopreservation is such a high priority with us.) >So: the longer you've been frozen the less attractive you are to the >revivalists. The stiffies of 1995 will be at the extreme limit of >unattractiveness as well as being at risk of destruction for the longest >period. Ah, but therein lies the power of the "first in, first out" nature of cryonics. My mother was cryopreserved with 1991 technology, my wife and I will probably be cryopreserved with mid-21st century technology, and my newborn daughter-- she probably won't need cryonics at all. At any given time, there will always be a revived cohort with strong personal ties to a preceeding generation preserved with slightly poorer technology. THERE'S the motivation for revival of ALL cryonics patients; pure, selfish, personal motivation without any altruism or concern required from the rest of society, thank you. You also must realize that once suspended animation is perfected, the whole tradition of caring for frozen people is going to be strongly reinforced. People will say, "Wow, frozen people really can be brought back to life!" and the resulting changes in social and legal mores cannot help but benefit even the most ancient cryonics patients. Last, but not least, you will surely have noticed by now that we cryonicists are one bunch of VERY determined (if slightly crazy) SOBs. That will count for something in this world. Why don't you join us? You're pretty good in a fight. We could use you. :-) *************************************************************************** Brian Wowk CryoCare Foundation 1-800-TOP-CARE President Your Gateway to the Future http://www.cryocare.org/cryocare/ Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=5891