X-Message-Number: 5891
From:  (Brian Wowk)
Newsgroups: sci.cryonics,uk.legal,sci.life-extension
Subject: Re: Virtue of suffering
Date: 4 Mar 96 05:17:01 GMT
Message-ID: <>

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In <> John Sharman <> 
writes:

>"Someone who is suspended ..." So were talking about existing 1995
>vintage stiffies, right? I have no idea how many there are in the world.
>A few hundred I would guess, at most. It is, I think, reasonable to
>assume that in the absence of restraining legislation, the number of
>frozen stiffies will grow at an accelerating (though not necessarily
>exponential) rate. With the passage of time the quality of the feezing
>will improve. That will means that the (a) ease and (b) prospects of
>successful resuscitation will in general be greater the later the
>feezing takes place. Now if you are in the position of being able to
>revive the stiffs let's say 200 years hence - how many will there be?
>Millions? Billions? Which end of the age spectrum will they start? Not
>the oldest, I'll wager. They'll start where their prospects are best and
>their motives are strongest. It'll be a case of "last in, first out".

	This is very insightful of you.  You are absolutely correct.
Cryonics will be a "last in, first out" process.  As our technology
continues to improve, it will culminate perhaps 40 or 50 years from
now with real-time reversible suspended animation of whole people.
Biological repair technologies will then continue to advance, allowing
us to effectively "reach backward in time" and recover people preserved
with earlier imperfect technologies.  Eventually, perhaps 150 to 200 years
from now, I expect we'll get even today's patients back.  We'll then
see exactly where on the continuum between amnesiac clone and fully-
restored person they end up.

	It's interesting that you have picked up on the "last in, first
out" theme, because by doing so you also implicitly acknowledge that
cryonics does not have to be demonstrably reversible in real-time in
order to succeed.  Clearly at *some* point before true suspended animation
is achieved, the preservation quality is going to be good enough to
get people back later.  How, then, does one evaluate the prospects for
success when immediate reversibility is not at hand?  What you 
DO NOT do is wring your hands and call it a matter of faith.  Instead,
you take your photomicrographs, metabolic studies, and electrophysiology
studies to neuroscientists and ask them what they think.  What are
the chances, then, that present techniques preserve the essential
elements of memory and personality?  With all the facts on the table,
I've heard estimates between 100% to a few percent--- considerably better
than the 10^-4 personal estimate you give in another post.  (Still, this
is not good enough, which is why perfecting brain cryopreservation is
such a high priority with us.) 

>So: the longer you've been frozen the less attractive you are to the
>revivalists. The stiffies of 1995 will be at the extreme limit of
>unattractiveness as well as being at risk of destruction for the longest
>period.

	Ah, but therein lies the power of the "first in, first out"
nature of cryonics.  My mother was cryopreserved with 1991 technology,
my wife and I will probably be cryopreserved with mid-21st century
technology, and my newborn daughter-- she probably won't need cryonics
at all.  At any given time, there will always be a revived cohort with
strong personal ties to a preceeding generation preserved with slightly
poorer technology.  THERE'S the motivation for revival of ALL cryonics
patients; pure, selfish, personal motivation without any altruism or
concern required from the rest of society, thank you.

	You also must realize that once suspended animation is perfected,
the whole tradition of caring for frozen people is going to be strongly
reinforced.  People will say, "Wow, frozen people really can be brought
back to life!" and the resulting changes in social and legal mores cannot
help but benefit even the most ancient cryonics patients. 

	Last, but not least, you will surely have noticed by now that
we cryonicists are one bunch of VERY determined (if slightly crazy)
SOBs.  That will count for something in this world.  Why don't you
join us?  You're pretty good in a fight.  We could use you. :-)
          
***************************************************************************
Brian Wowk          CryoCare Foundation               1-800-TOP-CARE
President           Your Gateway to the Future        
   http://www.cryocare.org/cryocare/

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