X-Message-Number: 5912
Newsgroups: sci.cryonics,sci.life-extension
From:  (Brad Templeton)
Subject: Re: Virtue of suffering
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 1996 04:30:00 GMT
Message-ID: <>
References: <> <>

In article <>,
John Sharman  <> wrote:
>     1.  Failure of nanotechnology to mature for "internal reasons" (a
>         practical barrier or obstacle proves insurmountable or at least
>         is not surmounted - ever.
A very serious concern, very hard to judge the probability.  The payoff
of nanotechnology is so huge it seems unlikley it will be given up on,
though like fusion, it may well take much longer than predicted.  However,
unlike fusion, nanotech exists productively now on the Earth.  Even before
Crick and Watson we knew that life was really software, and I would be
very surprised if we don't learn how to read and write that software
some day.  The benefits are so vast.  Molecular nanotech (as opposed to
biolotical DNA based nanotech) is more uncertain, but it can do things
biological nanotech can't.
>     2.  Funding fails through lack of investment yield
>     3.  Funding lost to dishonesty
>     4.  Funding lost to act of State (lawful confiscation)

We actually can look at this.  What is the success rate for multi-century
institutions which plan from the start to be multi-century?  There are many
around, and also there are failures, but this is not a 1 in 10^4 chance.
>    12.  Sharp relative rise in cost of liquid N2
>    13.  Deprivation of liquid N2 due to social or State emergency
While highly unlikley, it would have to be all cooling technologies which
face this barrier.
>    16.  Nanotechnology forced to develop in other directions.
One of the major concerns.
>    17.  Revival possible but prohibited
>    18.  Revival possible but nobody's interested
Unlikely for the few few hundred (sign up now!) but possible beyond them.
>

As for funding, I suspect Cryonics will be funded by a means that Cryo-orgs
are not trying very hard to attain, namley the extremely wealthy.

If a Cryo-org can get Bill Gates signed up, he can donate a small fraction of
his estate and keep the thing funded for several centuries.  Alcor doesn't
talk about it but they depended a lot in recent times on the generous
bequest of a wealthy suspendee's will, and I expect this is what will make
it happen in the future.   If somebody gets Bill Gates, or similar people,
they'll probably get me, just because I know that with that much wealth
behind it, if it can happen it will happen.  It won't run out of money and
it will be able to protect itself from even the government in many cases.
-- 
Brad Templeton, publisher, ClariNet Communications Corp.	 
The net's #1 E-Newspaper (1,200,000 paid sbscrbrs.)  http://www.clari.net/brad/


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