X-Message-Number: 5914
Date: 11 Mar 1996 06:44:52 U
From: "Norton, Brook" <>
Subject: Re: Virtue of suffering SCI.CRYONICS

In reply to part of:

Message #5909
From: John Sharman <>
Newsgroups: sci.cryonics,sci.life-extension
Subject: Re: Virtue of suffering

John Sharman writes:
Within that limited frame of reference I proposed a chance of success of
the order of 10^-4. In standing by that I take into account the
possibilities of

     1.  Failure of nanotechnology to mature for "internal reasons" (a
         practical barrier or obstacle proves insurmountable or at least
         is not surmounted - ever.
     2.  Funding fails through lack of investment yield
     3.  ......
     4.  ......, etc, etc.

I also decided a systematic evaluation of all relevant factors was a good
starting point for evaluating the chances of success of a cryonics suspension. 
Actually "systematic evaluation" really means assigning your best guess of the
odds for line item 1,2,3,etc and then combining the odds for an overall chance
of success.

I have constructed a spreadsheet (available in several formats) to make it easy
for one to put in one's own odds (which can vary over time).  See Cryonet msg
#5659 for more details of how and why this method was constructed.

I ended up getting a 35% overall chance of success.  Perhaps my biggest
difference from J.Sharmon's estimate would be that for the time frame of
affordable nanotechnology.  I estimated a 50% chance in 150 years from now and
continue to increase to 97% in 250 yrs from now. If this seems like too short a
timeframe, I would encourage Mr. Sharman to seek out literature from the
Foresight Institute (Box 61058, Palo Alto, CA 94306 USA) which is devoted to
educating both experts and nonexperts about nanotechnology (the material is
readable by the non-technical).

If you would like to plug in your own estimates, e-mail me privately and I'll
send you the spreadsheet.

Mr. Brook Norton
McDonnell Douglas, Long Bch CA

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