X-Message-Number: 6113 Date: Tue, 23 Apr 1996 04:43:09 -0500 (CDT) From: Don Ashley <> Subject: Re: CryoNet #6112 Perhaps Mr. Norton, Brook would like to share some statistics for Improving one's own odds for survival? On Tue, 23 Apr -1, CryoNet wrote: > CryoNet - Tue 23 Apr 1996 > > #6112: Improving your own odds of survival [Norton, Brook] > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Message #6112 > Date: 22 Apr 1996 06:48:55 U > From: "Norton, Brook" <> > Subject: Improving your own odds of survival > > Thomas Donaldson writes, in regards to Mr Sharman's attempt to quantify the > odds of survival: > > >And as a general point about such survival, it's quite wrong to sit and > >work out probabilities: the arithmetic isn't at issue, what is at issue > >is the fact that we are doing something to influence our own fate. And > >that can make such simple calculations quite wrong. > > I've done some work to help quantify one's odds of survival. You input into a > spreadsheet stuff like, odds of earthquake = 2% in 20 yr period, odds of > affordable nanotechnology in 100 yrs = 5%, etc., etc. Some of the inputs like > "odds of cryonics facility going bankrupt" can be affected by you before you > deanimate. Mr Donaldson's concern is that, since you can affect the odds > yourself, then you can't use a this type of statistical method to quantify the > odds. However, there is really no problem here, if you just take your own > efforts into account when you estimate the odds. Just rephrase the estimate > like: "odds of cryonics facility going bankrupt (considering that I will be > working to prevent bankruptcy)". > > Granted, there is a large margin of uncertainty in estimating the odds of > various pertinent future events, but you can nevertheless create a framework > (spreadsheet or other program) to correctly quantify the odds based on your own > best estimates. > > Brook Norton > Aerodynamics, McDonnell Douglas > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > End of CryoNet Digest > ********************* > Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=6113