X-Message-Number: 6274
From: Ralph Merkle <>
Subject: A simple observation
Date: Mon, 27 May 1996 11:31:44 PDT

Cryonics magazine (April 1993 page 11) has a graph titled

     Total Alcor Suspension Members
     Exponential Fit Graph (Semi-Log)

It shows total membership as a function of year from 1976
up to 1993.

Extrapolation of this graph showed Alcor with a total suspension
membership of between 700 and 800 by mid 1996.

The total membership of Alcor today is 383 (courtesy of Steve Bridge's
recent posting).  I don't have exact figures for CryoCare, but believe
it is approximately 100.  The total for the two organizations combined
is under 500.

This is a shortfall from the extrapolated value of 200 to 300
members.

Obviously, there are many reasons why an extrapolation might differ
from the actual numbers.  However, one prominent event which seems
to correlate well with the change in growth rate was the organizational
split that occurred around 1993.  This was accompanied by (among other
things) repeated and exaggerated public statements about the
shortcomings of the other organization, which might reasonably be
expected to influence growth rates.

We know a growth rate of almost 30% per year is feasible.  We also
know that our current growth rate is not 30% per year.  I believe
we can improve this situation.  Let's do so.


Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=6274