X-Message-Number: 6291
From: 
Date: Thu, 30 May 1996 23:01:13 -0400
Subject: explosive growth

Thomas Donaldson seems to disagree with my opinion--or conjecture--that
cryonics will one day experience a big surge in growth. 

Perhaps I have a bit of lingering vanity about being right sometimes, but I
must admit that on average I am wrong about six times a day--before
breakfast. (And I have an early breakfast.)  But I think there is a rationale
for the above conjecture, and it may have just a little bit of practical
importance.

My reasons for thinking that growth in cryonics participation may explode one
day are several. First, it is clear (or seems so to most of us) that the
logical/scientific  rationale for cryonics is so compelling that its failure
to catch on can only be explained in terms of psychopathology--and
psychological triggers are often of the hair variety. Second, we know from
our contacts that hundreds at least, and more likely thousands, have a
vaguely favorable impression or better, and have made mental notes to do
something about it, whenever they get around to it. Third, the rapid advances
in science and technology inevitably make our thesis more credible, just on a
vague, generalized basis. Fourth, the recent upsurge in professional and
public and media interest in life extension and life extension supplements is
an impressive indicator of the drift of feeling. 

When an issue catches fire in the stock market, or when a fad takes hold in
entertainment or fashion or politics, it is usually impossible to pinpoint
the reasons for the timing or the magnitude of the change, even in
retrospect. But it happens. Gradual changes of this kind are the EXCEPTION,
not the rule. I am nearly certain that the growth curve will turn VERY
sharply upward at some point.

But since we have no idea when that point will be reached, or how to advance
the timing, what's the good of speculation? Just a couple of little things.
First, I think it helps morale a tiny bit, somewhat as the Christians looked
forward to the Millennium. Second, it sometimes makes a good talking point.
(Do you want to be the last of the decomposing dead?) Third, it reminds us
that we should be prepared for the problems of success, and not just the
problems of relative failure. (The problems of success could easily be
worse!)   

Robert Ettinger


Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=6291