X-Message-Number: 6430
From:  (Thomas Donaldson)
Subject: Re: unhappy numbers
Date: Tue, 2 Jul 1996 15:54:41 -0700 (PDT)

Hi again!

In one sense this is an answer to both Saul and Dave, in another sense not.

First of all, I agree totally that we should spend more money on research, and
I also hope for successfull vitrification of brains. I would even go so far as

to say that money is the only SIGNIFICANT obstacle to attainment of that goal --
though I would hardly expect all the research problems involved to be simply

solved (but they would be clearly solvable). I am not now writing to doubt 
that,and did not mean that when I discussed this issue before.

HOWEVER, when we come to the effect of such an attainment on those who are now
NONcryonicists, I must (unhappily) disagree. Yes, I too would like to see a
research development suddenly increase interest in cryonics by many orders of
magnitude --- but I doubt that will be the result.

Some time ago I pointed to the general pattern by which movements grow:
first, an apparently exponential growth, followed by a slow-down in the same
pattern and a "final" (changes can start the growth up again) static numbers.
First of all, all the efforts, included efforts for vitrification, are PART
of such a pattern and cannot be separated from it. The growth pattern happens
because of our efforts, not independently of them. Second, it's not very hard
to see how many NONcryonicists won't be moved at all by our ability to vitrify
(rather than freeze) brains. Not only are those brains isolated brains, thus
leaving the entire issue of how to provide a body unanswered, but they are the
brains of people who suffered from many other problems, too, among which are
direct damage to the brain. WE believe that all those problems will someday
become easily solvable, but such a belief is not held by a large part of the
population. And I would even go so far as to include most science fiction 
readers in that group --- note how, even now, the characters continue not only
to have lifespans about as long as ours, with elderly people and young people,
but can rarely make use even of a significantly more advanced MEDICAL
technology (as for instance, if someone is found asphyxiated because their
oxygen ran out, they are DEAD). For us, such notions have become as accepted
as air itself --- but we are cryonicists.

Yes, 6000 people can promote cryonics much more effectively than 600. All that
increase will be very good. And they can also raise money to support even
more research toward OUR goals rather than that of other societies. But we
simply will not see a large PUBLIC response to our efforts. And though neither
Saul and Dave seem to think this way, one major point I was making was simply
that we should NOT expect public approbation for our cryonics work. Everyone
reading this will be frozen (I hope) by a cryonics society at a time when 
cryonics societies remain a small and mostly ignored part of society at large.
(Unless some of us are very lucky and live long enough to see significantly
advances against aging). OUR LIVES DO NOT DEPEND ON CONVERTING EVERYONE,
OR EVEN A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE, TO CRYONICS. They depend on our efforts
alone.

I am also among those who think that someday, everyone WILL be a cryonicist,
and those who worked early in this movement will get the approbation and
respect they deserve. But that time will not happen soon.

Finally, particularly for Dave: if you know that the total number of signed
up members exceeds 1500, or is much larger than 600, what you say is important.
I was only using an "order-of-magnitude" estimate: another 100 or 200 more
won't change anything at all.

			Best and long long life to all,

				Thomas Donaldson


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