X-Message-Number: 7068
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 1996 09:20:49 -0400
From: "Michael" <>
Subject: Goats.

I am in total agreement with Art Quaife...not only for academic reasons, 
but because I have made a lot of money on this proposition. And, I have 
had righteous and condescending arguments from mathemeticians who then 
proceeded to accept my challenge.

Here is the bet: ( and there is no "funny business or trickery 
involved". It involveds three coins instead of three doors, and two 
heads and a tail instead of two goats and a car. If you had three doors 
and two goats and a car, I could do this equally as well...makes no 
difference.

You lay out three coins...two with heads showing and one with tails. 
They are known simply as 1,2, or 3. I am blindfolded. I randomly select 
a coin by number. You put that coin aside. it is of course either a head 
or a tail. Then, from the remining two coins, if there is only one head 
(in the case where i selected a head) ...remove it. If there are two 
heads (in the case where I selected a tail) , arbitrarily remove one of 
them. Now two coins remain. There has to be one tail and one head. You 
then tell me if you want me to locate either the head or tail among the 
two coins. I will then comply by either staying with my original 
selection or switching to the one you did not remove. 

I will pay you $1.10 for every one I lose, (typical bookie "juice" on 
the losing bet), and you pay me $1.00 for everyone I win. If this is a 
fifty/fifty deal, I should slowly go broke.

Any takers?

It is interesting that occasionally the pragmatic approach will be far 
more convincing than theory.

Michael


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