X-Message-Number: 7070 From: ( RON SELKOVITCH) Date: Thu, 24 Oct 1996 14:06:09, -0500 Subject: Goats After having failed to solve the problem by sheer logic I resorted to running a small computer simulation. The result was success 1/3 of the time if I stayed with the first choice, and success 2/3 of the time if I switched. (Assumming I wanted the car and not a goat :) ). Once I knew the answer, then the logic to support it became easy. I explain as follows; When I make my first choice the probability of success is 1/3 and the probability of the car being in ONE of the other locations is 2/3. But if the car is in one of the two other locations my chance of choosing it by switching is 100% because Monty has eliminated the possibility of the wrong choice. So the chance of success by switching remains at 2/3 By the way, if I have to choose between discussing goats or flame wars, give me goats any time. Ron S Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=7070