X-Message-Number: 7070
From:  ( RON   SELKOVITCH)
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 1996 14:06:09, -0500
Subject: Goats

After having failed to solve the problem by sheer logic I resorted to
running a small computer simulation.
The result was success 1/3 of the time if I stayed with the first choice,
and success 2/3 of the time if I switched. (Assumming I wanted the car and
not a goat :) ).

Once I knew the answer, then the logic to support it became easy. I explain
as follows;

When I make my first choice the probability of success is 1/3 and the
probability of the car being in ONE of the other locations is 2/3.
But if the car is in one of the two other locations my chance of choosing
it by switching is 100% because Monty has eliminated the possibility of the
wrong choice.  So the chance of success by switching remains at 2/3

By the way, if I have to choose between discussing goats or flame wars,
give me goats any time.

Ron S


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