X-Message-Number: 7073
From: eli+@gs160.sp.cs.cmu.edu
Subject: Monty Hall
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 96 12:44:43 EDT

>From: Peter Merel <>
>Sorry, probability theory doesn't work like this; an elementary property
>of probability theory is that past results do nothing to fix the
>odds of new measurements.

You're assuming independence; it's not present.

The Monty Hall problem is an interesting illustration of the weakness
of human probabilistic intuition, but please, let's not rehash it here. 
If you want to know why you should switch, this problem is the first
one listed in the rec.puzzles FAQ.

-- 
   Eli Brandt
   eli+@cs.cmu.edu


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