X-Message-Number: 7074 From: Peter Merel <> Subject: Terror of Goats Date: Fri, 25 Oct 1996 22:54:34 +1000 (EST) Perry Metzger writes, >You can ALWAYS find the correct probability by enumerating all >possibilities. Indeed, and doing this I find, to my astonishment, that I'm a goatboy. Mea Culpa, well done Hara, apologies to Art for ever doubting, and thanks to the folks who took the time to explain. Once I consider the proposition by enumeration, the flaw in my logic is obvious: before the second pick, there is a 2/3 chance that I'm sitting on a goat. Hmm. Maybe we can put this mistake down to existential terror. Being afraid of getting goats, I've "managed away" calculating the likelihood that by doing nothing I'll wind up with a goat. I wonder then whether treating this conundrum might be the equivalent of the "different cult" method of deprogramming cultists. Perhaps something like this could be useful in Tim Freeman's TM-based deathist-deprogramming method? Peter Merel. Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=7074