X-Message-Number: 7074
From: Peter Merel <>
Subject: Terror of Goats
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 1996 22:54:34 +1000 (EST)

Perry Metzger writes,

>You can ALWAYS find the correct probability by enumerating all

Indeed, and doing this I find, to my astonishment, that I'm a goatboy.
Mea Culpa, well done Hara, apologies to Art for ever doubting, and
thanks to the folks who took the time to explain. Once I consider
the proposition by enumeration, the flaw in my logic is obvious: 
before the second pick, there is a 2/3 chance that I'm sitting 
on a goat. 

Hmm. Maybe we can put this mistake down to existential terror. Being
afraid of getting goats, I've "managed away" calculating the likelihood
that by doing nothing I'll wind up with a goat. I wonder then whether
treating this conundrum might be the equivalent of the "different cult"
method of deprogramming cultists. Perhaps something like this could be
useful in Tim Freeman's TM-based deathist-deprogramming method?

Peter Merel.

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