X-Message-Number: 7296
From: Peter Merel <>
Subject: Rice
Date: Fri, 13 Dec 1996 19:43:25 +1100 (EST)

In reference to the discussion Thomas and I have been having, I read the
following in the nando times (reuters) this morning. This is from an
interview with the International Rice Research Institute's Dr. Gurdev
Khush, winner of the 1996 World Food prize "and probably the foremost
expert on the genetics of rice". These excerpts are reproduced without
permission.

--

[Dr Khush commented,] "We are facing very daunting problems and not
enough people understand the urgency of the situation."

"In the 1970s and 1980s rice productivity increased by almost 4
percent a year while population growth was about 1.8 percent. In the
1990s Asia's population is still growing by 1.8 percent, but rice
production is increasing by only 1.5 percent. You don't need to be a
mathematician to work out the implications. This time, however, we are
also up against water shortages and decreasing land supply. In short,
we need another green revolution."

The 61-year-old academic is striving to repeat the unprecedented
breakthroughs which led to the high-yielding hybrids of the green
revolution. Back then -- and with the help of improvements in
irrigation -- IR64 and its cousins boosted output by up to 300 percent
in some parts of Asia. IR64 is now cultivated on more than 20 million
acres -- roughly equivalent to the size of Indonesia.

"I don't think we can develop another IR64 or IR72. What we are aiming
for is to find a strain which will boost output by about 20 percent,"
he said. "This would at least buy us some time to improve irrigation
and bring population growth under control."

--

Peter Merel.


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