X-Message-Number: 8369 Date: Mon, 14 Jul 1997 19:35:18 -0700 From: Marty Nemko <> Subject: Nagging questions I have been contemplating signing up with CryoCare or Alcor for a long time, and wonder why I, a person not otherwise prone to procrastination, continue to defer making this decision. It's not the money. As soon as I started to contemplate this, I purchased a life insurance policy that will cover it. It seems that it hinges on my analysis that the probability of satisfactory revival is so close to zero (e.g., less than 1 in a billion) that it's not worth the hassle of having to get my family, doctor, on board, the paperwork, etc. I would love to be disabused of my notion that the probability of satisfactory revival is truly less than 1 in a billion. My analysis is as follows. The probability of my being revived satisfactorily is the joint probability of the following events: The probability of my actually being suspended (e.g., not lost at sea, last-minute objections from family or physician) TIMES the probability of a suspension timely enough to retain my memories TIMES the probabililty that I will remain frozen for the hundred(s) of years until it becomes possible to be revived TIMES the probability that my memories will be retained during the hundred(s) of years TIMES the probability that a natural disaster (e.g., nuclear war, earthquake, etc) does not destroy my body TIMES the probability that there are funds in my patient care account to revive me TIMES the probability that my cryonics organization or subsequent designee remains in business and willing and able to revive me TIMES the probability that the revival will be physically successful TIMES the probability that I will awake without dire pain (in my view, an extremely small probability) TIMES the probability that the government will allow my revival TIMES the probability that I will be allowed to go free rather than be kept in a laboratory for experimentation or zoo for observation TIMES the probability that I will have or could earn sufficient funds not to starve to death or otherwise have a life so meager that it wouldn't be worth living. And those are the probabilities that I can imagine. I would bet that there are other contingencies that I can't even imagine. Is my analysis incorrect? I've found that standard argument for cryonic suspension (Some probability of revival is better than none) is weak if the probability of satisfactory revival is no better than 1 in a BILLION, which I estimate. TWO SMALLER QUESTIONS: 1. Cryonicists seem to ridicule "simple cloning" as far less desirable than suspension followed by revival. It would seem to me that "simple cloning" followed by a "reeducation program" in which the archived record of the person's memories, experience, etc., were told to the person upon revival is a reasonable alternative: You come back with a guaranteed healthy physical copy of the person. Given my already-starting-to-fade memory, seeing my personal archive of memories, etc., might not result in too great a loss from my current self. What am I not understanding? 2. What's the current thinking on the pros and cons of CryoCare vs. Alcor? Thank you all for reading and perhaps considering responding to this missive. Marty Nemko Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=8369