X-Message-Number: 8369
Date: Mon, 14 Jul 1997 19:35:18 -0700
From: Marty Nemko <>
Subject: Nagging questions

I have been contemplating signing up with CryoCare or Alcor for a long 
time, and wonder why I, a person not otherwise prone to procrastination, 
continue to defer making this decision.

It's not the money.  As soon as I started to contemplate this, I 
purchased a life insurance policy that will cover it.

It seems that it hinges on my analysis that the probability of 
satisfactory revival is so close to zero (e.g., less than 1 in a 
billion) that it's not worth the hassle of having to get my family, 
doctor, on board, the paperwork, etc.  I would love to be disabused of 
my notion that the probability of satisfactory revival is truly less 
than 1 in a billion.  My analysis is as follows.  The probability of my 
being revived satisfactorily is the joint probability of the following 

The probability of my actually being suspended (e.g., not lost at sea, 
last-minute objections from family or physician) TIMES

the probability of a suspension timely enough to retain my memories 

the probabililty that I will remain frozen for the hundred(s) of years 
until it becomes possible to be revived TIMES

the probability that my memories will be retained during the hundred(s) 
of years TIMES

the probability that a natural disaster (e.g., nuclear war, earthquake, 
etc) does not destroy my body TIMES

the probability that there are funds in my patient care account to 
revive me TIMES

the probability that my cryonics organization or subsequent designee 
remains in business and willing and able to revive me TIMES

the probability that the revival will be physically successful TIMES

the probability that I will awake without dire pain (in my view, an 
extremely small probability) TIMES

the probability that the government will allow my revival TIMES

the probability that I will be allowed to go free rather than be kept in 
a laboratory for experimentation or zoo for observation TIMES

the probability that I will have or could earn sufficient funds not to 
starve to death or otherwise have a life so meager that it wouldn't be 
worth living.

And those are the probabilities that I can imagine.  I would bet that 
there are other contingencies that I can't even imagine.

Is my analysis incorrect?  I've found that standard argument for cryonic 
suspension (Some probability of revival is better than none) is weak if 
the probability of satisfactory revival is no better than 1 in a 
BILLION, which I estimate.

1. Cryonicists seem to ridicule "simple cloning" as far less desirable 
than suspension followed by revival.  It would seem to me that "simple 
cloning" followed by a "reeducation program" in which the archived 
record of the person's memories, experience, etc., were told to the 
person upon revival is a reasonable alternative: You come back with a 
guaranteed healthy physical copy of the person.  Given my 
already-starting-to-fade memory, seeing my personal archive of memories, 
etc., might not result in too great a loss from my current self.  What 
am I not understanding?

2. What's the current thinking on the pros and cons of CryoCare vs. 

Thank you all for reading and perhaps considering responding to this 

Marty Nemko

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