X-Message-Number: 8375
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 1997 16:03:41 -0400
From: Brook Norton <>
Subject: Odds spreadsheet

Marty Nemko, in msg 8369 asks about the odds of reanimation and asks for
advice on how to estimate them.  I also needed to give it my best guess
before deciding how involved to get.

Needless to say, the degree of uncertainty is large for estimating the key
future events involved in reanimation.  Some have warned that the
uncertainties are so large that any estimate is meaningless.  But I believe
one must make SOME stab at it before deciding to pursue it or not.  If the
odds are 1 in a billion, I wouldn't bother with suspension.  So a few years
ago I made a spreadsheet with the correct mathematical organization to
combine the user's estimates for various events into one final number which
is your odds of reanimation (its not a simple product of odds as Marty
first tried).  If you'd like an e-mailed version in Excel, let me know
(specify which Excel version, and whether for Mac or PC).  By the way, when
I input my own estimates, I get a final number of 35% chance of success.

Brook Norton (Mr)
Aerospace Engineer

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