X-Message-Number: 8380
Date: Wed, 16 Jul 1997 09:37:11 -0700
From: Tim Freeman <>
Subject: Multiplying many probabilities

Marty Lemko writes:

> the probabililty that I will remain frozen for the hundred(s) of years 
> until it becomes possible to be revived

Do you really think it will take that long?

>the probability that my memories will be retained during the hundred(s) 
>of years TIMES

Hardly any chemistry at LN2 temperatures, so this shouldn't be an issue.

> the probability that a natural disaster (e.g., nuclear war, earthquake,
> etc) does not destroy my body 

If nuclear war also defeats other alternatives you have (such as
giving a little bit more money to your descendants, etc.), then
there's no point in counting it as a demerit against cryonics.

Alcor chose to move somewhere that doesn't have earthquakes.
Cryocare's storage organization has taken great pains to reinforce
their storage facility against earthquakes.  I don't think earthquakes
happen in Michigan where the Cryonics Institute is.  In general,
natural disasters can be guarded against.

>... it's not worth the hassle of having to get my family, doctor, on
>board, the paperwork, etc.

The paperwork is no big deal.  The relationship with the doctor
probably won't last long enough to make much difference, so it doesn't
matter unless you're playing through some end-game.

The family is a different matter.  There is some merit in acting upon
one's principles.  This will attract people to you who share those
principles, and also repel some who would otherwise get in your way.
This causes the inevitable indoctrination effect where you absorb
beliefs from the people near you to work to your advantage.  It also
leads people sometimes; if you are doing things to live longer, then
perhaps you will influence some members of your family to do the same.

>the probability that my cryonics organization or subsequent designee 
>remains in business and willing and able to revive me TIMES

To judge this, you need to compare to other organizations that were
designed to last for a long time.  Most businesses are meant to make a
profit in the short term.

>the probability that the revival will be physically successful TIMES
>
>the probability that I will awake without dire pain (in my view, an 
>extremely small probability) TIMES
>
>the probability that the government will allow my revival TIMES
>
>the probability that I will be allowed to go free rather than be kept in 
>a laboratory for experimentation or zoo for observation TIMES
>
>the probability that I will have or could earn sufficient funds not to 
>starve to death or otherwise have a life so meager that it wouldn't be 
>worth living.

The probabilities you are concerned about aren't probabilities of
independent events, so it is not valid to multiply them.  For example,
if technology sufficient to revive people happens, then people will
eventually understand what is happening around them, so a democratic
government's response to it will not be insane in the long term.  (I
don't mean to imply that I am sure we'll have a democratic government;
a globally insane society is a separate risk that underlies many of
the items on your list.)

On the other hand, here's another problem to add to the list:

   the probability that, although I am revived and able to live
   comfortably, my abilities are so far behind the leading edge that I
   will forever be irrelevant.

If you are pursuing other life-extension techniques that you think are
more promising than cryonics, then please talk about them.  But if
you're doing nothing at all, then I have to agree with Kennita; the
fundamental problem is probably that you are too pessimistic in
general.
-- 
Tim Freeman       
            http://www.infoscreen.com/resume.html
Web-centered Java and Perl programming in Silicon Valley or offsite

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