X-Message-Number: 8391
Date: Fri, 18 Jul 1997 13:59:35 -0400 (EDT)
From: The Hitman <>
Subject: Odds

To start with I'd like to agree with the people who are saying
that there is no way to know realistically what the odds are
of being revived.  Just looking at the desparity between estimates
shows it is a rather useless exercise.  In this discussion though
I did key on to something that is interesting.  Even assuming an
intermediate chance of say 1 in 10 000 000 this number could be used
for marketing of cryonics.

As Kennita put it in one posting if you don't buy a ticketyou can't
win.  Look at all the people who buy lottery tickets with the idea
that they could win thus improving their lives (at least thats what 
they believe).  Well as I'm sure you all know the odds of winning 
the jackpot in a 6/49 style lottery (six correct of 6 drawn out of
49 numbers) is just under 1 in 14 000 000.  Thus assuming as I did
earlier the odds of cryonic working at 1 in 10 mill. its better
than winning the lottery.  Of coarse the cost is about 100 000 times
as much as buying a lottery ticket but I would say that the reward
is many times greater than that (and you don't have to worry about
splitting the prize!).

So to those who are saying the odds aren't good enough to sign up
for cryonics yet, let me ask did you ever buy a lottery ticket?

By the way its nice to see the number of postings per day back to 
a higher level I was starting to wonder where everyone had gone.


Brett Corlett

Faculty of Engineering, Carleton University
Suspension and Steering Team Leader, Formula SAE

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