X-Message-Number: 8776
Date: Thu, 13 Nov 1997 17:05:16 -0500
From: "Steven B. Harris" <>
Subject: Power to Cloud Men's Minds

Dear Cryonet:

   Although in theory it's a good idea to ask people who don't
sign up for cryonics why they didn't do it, in practice the
information is about as likely to generate real psychological
reasons as asking people "why" they didn't take their blood
pressure pills, wear their seat-belts, or keep their dental or
doctor appointments.  What are they going to tell you?  The real
"reasons" why people deal (or fail to deal) rationally with pain
and risk, and with life-and-death decisions, are generally too
deep to get at, though a questionnaire.  Good luck.

   After more than a decade with the cryonics movement (and more
than a decade of being signed up myself) I've come to some of my
own subjective conclusions about why people do or don't sign up. 
You can take them for what they are worth.  Some of this I've
said before on the net long ago, but I'll charitably repeat it
for those who've missed it.  You're all entitled to my opinions,
after all <g>.

    The first thing I think it's important to realize is that
most people DON'T sign up for cryonic suspension because they
think it won't work, or can't work.  On the contrary, the reason
most people don't sign up is because they are afraid it WILL
work, and leave them after resurrection stranded as loners or
social outcasts (the Frankenstein penalty).  In order to get past
that fear, people need to be anesthetized to the social 
consequences of radical time travel, in some way.  

   Ways in which this happens differ from person to person. It
seems to me that people who sign up for cryonic suspension
broadly fall into two categories, according to how they deal with
the idea of irreversible radical future time travel:

   Type I:  The technogeeks.  I don't mean to disparage this
group too much, since I probably fit here most closely myself. 
Technogeek people are lone wolves, almost always men, who for one
reason or another don't feel a great affinity or connection with
their society anyway.  Their opinions are generally radical, and
their IQ usually high (although their EQ or emotional intelli-
gence is often low).  Often they work in technical fields.  If
they work in social fields they have some other reason for
already being disconnected or alienated from society (ie, gay men
or women). The idea of radical time travel to the far future
simply does not terrify them.  They generally report being avid
SF readers, and report deciding to sign up instantly as soon as
they heard that cryonics was financially feasible.  

   Not being very sensitive, technogeek people usually have no
idea why everyone does not sign up for cryonics, and they usually
end up thinking the reasons have to do with some theoretical
argument in physics or nanotechnology, or some failure of
marketing.  "Gee," one hears these people say, "we should be able
to get thousands of new members if only we do the following
simple thing: ...."   These people are suckers for others who
claim to have the simple answer, like Michael Cloud.  Trying to
convince them that the problem is far more complicated usually
goes nowhere, because they simply lack the emotional equipment to
understand why most people don't WANT to travel into the future
without their postcranial corpi, or their social milieus.

   Type I cryonicists and their families (who are Type II)
include most of the early cryonicists in the movement, up to the
beginning of the "log phase" or exponential growth in the
cryonics movement, from 1986-1993, or so.

   Type II:  We've looked at Type I cryonicists.  Type II
cryonicists are simply everybody else who signs up.  For the
average non-technogeek person, the idea of traveling into the
future where society and human relationships are radically
different, is terrifying.  As is the physical idea of having the
cryonics operation done on one's body (for neurosuspension, add
more apprehension).  In order to get past these basic fears, most
people (the type II people) require two assurances before they
sign up:  1) That a large fraction of their social relationships
survive with them.  This requires close contact and a number of
personal relationships with other cryonicists, over a long period
of time.  2) That the cryonics operation be done on them by
people they know, and who they have established a kind of doctor-
patient relationship with.  Radical medical technology is scary,
and you don't want it done on you by strangers or screw-ups. 
Preferably, you'd like to know the medical high priests involved,
and have confidence in their technical skills.  

   Since one or both of these factors must be present (in some
measure or another), growth of cryonics by Type II membership
requires regular cryonics meetings and social activities, as well
as a highly competent suspension team which has some charisma,
and is highly visible in cryonics activities.  If both of these
factors are present, the idea of cryonics spreads through local
and close social contact exponentially like a disease 
(technically: meme), though not a very infectious disease (ie,
more like HIV than the flu virus).  Interrupt this process,
however, and exponential growth disappears, to be replaced by the
linear background noise of continuing Type I/technogeek signups,
which are always with us.  This happened in 1993, when the
ejection of Mike Darwin and other key personnel from Alcor, and
the movement of Alcor physically to Arizona, caused a split in
the cryonics membership which caused both factions to fall below
the critical mass of technical skills and social relationships
necessary to sustain log growth.

   What do I see in the future of cryonics?  It seems inevitable
that eventually, in some place, after a slow accumulation of Type
I signups and their families, the critical mass of 
relationships and skills will allow for log growth of cryonics to
continue locally once again.  I do not know when this will
happen.  Much depends on negotiations now taking place between
factions of cryonicists.  It may happen in 2 years or 20, but it
will happen.

   How important is continuing research in this scheme?  Fairly
important, but only in the context above.  If suspended animation
is achieved, don't look for a huge signup to follow; for reasons
explained above, we probably won't see much extra growth at all. 
But that doesn't mean we don't need to do the research.  

   And what about Michael Cloud, Alcor's latest guru?  He
apparently hasn't a clue as to why people do or don't sign up for
cryonics.  In my opinion, his nearest counterparts are the people
who get rich by selling seminars and books on how to get rich. 
Or people who don't get rich from the stock market directly, but
(incredibly) by giving advice in newsletters to OTHERS on what
stocks to buy.  Why do we keep falling for such stuff?  These
people are like human chain letters.  My advice is to require
that Mr. Cloud be paid nothing but commissions from extra signups
he generates-- something I recommended from the beginning.  If he
does well at that, I'll cheerfully admit to being wrong.  But I
predict he'll scream.  Imagine an investment newsletter asking
only a fractional commission on your investment profits.  That'll
be the day.

                                      Steve Harris


(And by the way, is he signed up yet?)

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