X-Message-Number: 9066
From: Ettinger <>
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 1998 10:03:45 EST
Subject: probabililty of revival

John Pietrzak (#9064) has some questions/opinions about the focus of cryonics
organizations that will be answered, no doubt, by some organization leaders or
members. I just want briefly to comment on his opinion--and opinion of
opinions--that the probability of rescue of current patients is extremely low,
maybe one in millions.

Looking only at the probability of eventual adequate future technology (not
considering general or local catastrophes etc.), the people who make
pessimistic "estimates" are in fact not estimating at all--just dressing up
their pessimistic impressions or guesses with meaningless numbers. 

Is it possible to make an actual, scientific calculation of the probability of
rescue, even with rough numbers? I claim to have done so, and the detailed
argument and calculations are available in a booklet from the Immortalist
Society: CRYONICS: THE PROBABILITY OF RESCUE. My conclusion is that the odds,
far from being enormously adverse, are in fact better than even.

Of course my discussion will not be persuasive to those with a congealed
psychology, but someone with an open mind may learn something. (Confucius say,
man with hole in head have open mind.)

Incidentally, since that booklet was written (and long after its precursor, my
master's essay in math, was written) work by Ralph Merkle, Eric Drexler and
others has made the thesis stronger, by looking in detail at certain aspects
of freezing damage and possible repair technologies.

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society

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