X-Message-Number: 9089
Date: Mon, 02 Feb 1998 10:05:06 -0500
From: "John P. Pietrzak" <>
Subject: Re: An even shorter lecture (#9077)
References: <>

Robert Ettinger wrote:
>
> It's probably wasting everbody's time--especially mine--but I can't
> resist a small lecture.

Me neither. :)

> Nevertheless, from the standpoint of any particular moment and any
> particular set of assumptions and any particular observer, it is
> ALWAYS possible to make a scientific estimate of probability for any
> event whatever.
> 
> That the estimate may often be very rough does not change the fact
> that it is valid. In fact, one of the worst failings of many (most?)
> statisticians is that they prefer estimates that are PRECISE over
> estimates that are VALID.

Estimate: there are between 0 and infinity red blood cells in my body.

100% valid.  0% precise.  Precision is of some use in the real world.


John

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