X-Message-Number: 9110
Date: Wed, 4 Feb 1998 11:58:31 -0500
From: Saul Kent <>
Subject: The Odds Of Revival

        This is the way I look at the odds of revival for cryonics
patients.

        For those frozen already, the odds depend upon who is estimating
them,
what they base their estimate on, and what the condition of the patient is.
Some
people have a high estimate of the odds of revival; others have a low
estimate
of these odds; while still others believe there is no chance at all of
revival.  Most 
of those who estimate the odds of revival do so by the "seat of their
pants"; some 
think about it clearly; some do calculations.

        For those not yet frozen (or about to be frozen) the odds are less
certain because we don't know when (or if) they will be frozen, and what
the
conditions will be when it happens.

        As far as the "sweep of history" as a reason for optimism in
calculating
the odds of revival, I agree that that past events suggest that revival of
cryonics
patients may be possible. However, the most persuasive historical events
are
those which have (and will) produce improvements in how we preserve
patients.

        I believe the best way of upping the odds of revival would be to
demonstrate major improvements in cryopreservation techniques such as 
reversible cryopreservation of a vital organ, especially the brain, and an
ongoing 
research program that promises continued improvements in methodology, 
leading, within the foreseeable future, to perfected suspended animation.

        Once this happens, everyone's estimates of the probability of
revival
will rise, and some of those who think there is currently no chance of
revival will
change their minds.

        A major objective of 21st Century Medicine (21CM) is to achieve
perfected suspended animation.  In the last couple of weeks several people
have asked me to spell out more clearly 21CM's research plans.  Others have
discussed the possibility of investment in 21CM.

        It is not appropriate at this time to discuss either issue
publicly,
however, it's likely we will be able to do so later in the year.

---Saul Kent

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