X-Message-Number: 9110 Date: Wed, 4 Feb 1998 11:58:31 -0500 From: Saul Kent <> Subject: The Odds Of Revival This is the way I look at the odds of revival for cryonics patients. For those frozen already, the odds depend upon who is estimating them, what they base their estimate on, and what the condition of the patient is. Some people have a high estimate of the odds of revival; others have a low estimate of these odds; while still others believe there is no chance at all of revival. Most of those who estimate the odds of revival do so by the "seat of their pants"; some think about it clearly; some do calculations. For those not yet frozen (or about to be frozen) the odds are less certain because we don't know when (or if) they will be frozen, and what the conditions will be when it happens. As far as the "sweep of history" as a reason for optimism in calculating the odds of revival, I agree that that past events suggest that revival of cryonics patients may be possible. However, the most persuasive historical events are those which have (and will) produce improvements in how we preserve patients. I believe the best way of upping the odds of revival would be to demonstrate major improvements in cryopreservation techniques such as reversible cryopreservation of a vital organ, especially the brain, and an ongoing research program that promises continued improvements in methodology, leading, within the foreseeable future, to perfected suspended animation. Once this happens, everyone's estimates of the probability of revival will rise, and some of those who think there is currently no chance of revival will change their minds. A major objective of 21st Century Medicine (21CM) is to achieve perfected suspended animation. In the last couple of weeks several people have asked me to spell out more clearly 21CM's research plans. Others have discussed the possibility of investment in 21CM. It is not appropriate at this time to discuss either issue publicly, however, it's likely we will be able to do so later in the year. ---Saul Kent Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=9110