X-Message-Number: 935
Date: Mon, 29 Jun 92 13:07:14 -0400
From: Timothy_Freeman@U.ERGO.CS.CMU.EDU

eder@hsvaic.boeing.com (Dani Eder) says:
>I think the posting about Luddites is off the mark.  Instead, I
>see what technology has done for the 'ne'er do well' in society.

...so far.  If we're willing to believe for no particular reason that
the future will be only trivially different from the past, then we
might as well give up because no one has been frozen and revived yet.

I'm saying here that I have reason to believe that they will be
different.  In the past, everyone had about the same abilities, and
technology provided better ways to use those abilities,
without any serious threat of making those abilities obsolete.  This
lead to an improved standard of living for the average person.

In the future, technology will eventually give ways to make most human
abilities that are cheaper and more convenient than actually having a
human around.  This will lead to lots of displaced people.

Some people thought this would happen back when people believed that
fortunes were to be made in the short term with robotics.  The robots
were supposed to replace all the factory workers, leading to massive
unemployment, and big fortunes for industrial robotics companies.  The
lesson to learn from this is that the scarce resource was human
dexterity, rather than the human hand.  The robots have good enough
hands, but their clumsiness and inflexibility make humans a better buy
in many cases.

When we get to the point where artificial dexterity is cheap and
reliable, the massive unemployment scenario will happen.  We aren't
there yet, but we will get there eventually.

Another disadvantage of modern robots in the marketplace is that
they're expensive to manufacture and maintain.  Coming technology will
eliminate that disadvantage as well.

>What I see is technology has made it cheaper to live, whatever
>level of technology you incorporate into your lifestyle.

Right.  But technology hasn't yet significantly reduced anybody's
income by raising the level of competition, and I think it will
eventually.

Tim

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=935