X-Message-Number: 9380
From: Ettinger <>
Date: Tue, 31 Mar 1998 10:09:23 EST
Subject: utility

Nothing new about the following, but perhaps it deserves renewed
attention--and will doubtless get it, at the upcoming Alcor conference, by
Marvin Minsky, James Halperin, and Michael Cloud.

Recruitment for immortalism and cryonics would get a big boost if we could
elevate the PERCEPTION of the UTILITY of radical life extension.

Most people probably have a good feel for the difference between "value" and
"utility"--even if they don't know the jargon. But we'll touch the base with
an easy example:

Which would you rather have--a 50% chance to win a million dollars, or a 1%
chance to win a billion?

The "expected value" (average take) in the former case is $500,000, in the
latter case $10,000,000. The latter has 20 times the value of the former. Yet
the average person would choose the former, which for him has the greater
"utility" or psychological value. (Bill Gates would choose the latter.)

We can offer the average citizen the chance to participate in wonders and
glories--but that ISN'T what he wants. He doesn't want to live forever or
think at electronic speeds or leap tall buildings at a single bound. He just
wants better health and longer life and more money and comfort and amusement
and autonomy and beauty and justice and love and control, less drudgery and
hardship and danger and boredom and impositions and ugliness and viciousness
and injustice and helplessness. He wants the improvements to come in
understandable increments and at an adaptable  pace. 

I know, you're different--you do want to leap tall buildings at a single
bound; but you aren't average. However, even exceptional people are usually
pretty near average in most respects. Immortalists tend to be well above
average in intelligence and education--but equal or superior people, in many
times our numbers, still fail to grok it.  This includes most of the
professional visionaries, such as Arthur C. Clarke. Clarke ARTICULATED the
"failure of imagination or failure of nerve" diagnosis, yet shows the symptoms
himself. 

Anomalies abound. Most people would not pay a substantial amount for a tiny
chance to win even the largest prize--if clearly presented that choice, at one
shot. Yet enormous numbers "invest" in the state lotteries, often spending
$5-$10 per week or $100-$200 per year, although the odds are ridiculous.
Charles Platt says he thinks the chance of revival, under OPTIMUM conditions,
is only around one in 10,000--yet he has made a huge investment of time and
effort, as well as money. (If I thought the odds were that bad, I would be
long gone from cryonics.) Clearly, there are psychological handles available
somewhere, if we can locate and grab them. 

Look again at the state lottery. One very important thing they have that we
lack is success stories--photos of happy winners and stories of how they spent
their money, gave autos to their relatives, etc. But visible success stories
are not essential, as witness the successes of religions, political parties,
etc.; there are no interviews in Heaven or photos of new wings and haloes. 

What IS important is a support group for mutual inspiration and
encouragement--and I think the focus should NOT be on the distant future or
transhumanity, or on anything remote and threatening. The focus should be on
reunion, love, health, comradeship, adventure (but not fantasy), achievement
(but not fantasy), pleasure (but not perpetual orgasm), independence (but not
anarchy), revolution (but mainly against the tyranny of disease and "natural"
death, not against most of the traditional ideals), and justice ("Life isn't
fair").

One small way to begin to fill the need, for those inclined to work in that
niche, is suggested by Halperin's novel THE TRUTH MACHINE. Actually, we don't
need a machine that infallibly detects lies; we need a system that arrives at
truth or evidence, by whatever means. We already have the polygraph, which is
not infallible but does contribute to the search. More generally, we need
procedures or devices that INCREASE RELEVANT INFORMATION. A very simple start
(which I and no doubt many others suggested many years ago) is to install
recording video monitors at public places, including street corners. (This has
recently been tried in England, with reported success.) 

Video/audio monitoring, with secure remote recording, could also be done in
private homes or (soon) on the individual's person or in his vehicle. There
will also be panic buttons that will send a signal to the police giving the
exact location of the emergency and identity of the sender and recordings of
the vicinity. This would make successful crime much more difficult. In the
slightly more distant future, air and dust samples will yield DNA-containing
particles of dead skin, exhalates, and other byproducts of the presence of
particular individuals in any room or vehicle at any relatively recent time.

Yes, I know the alleged objections, both as to practicality and
ethics/politics; but I don't want to discuss those now. My question is, how do
we harness this horse?

Part of the answer may be to use social or commercial tie-ins. For example, in
cryonics we still need a relatively cheap, reliable dead-man's switch, that
sends an alarm if the pulse falters or some other emergency condition occurs.
It has obvious value beyond cryonics, and those buying it for other purposes
could be made aware of cryonics in a favorable context.

Yes, this has been hasty and poorly organized; there is much more, but enough
for the moment.

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society
http://www.cryonics.org

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