```X-Message-Number: 9492
Date: Wed, 15 Apr 1998 15:01:08 -0400
From: Rafi Haftka < var s1 = "haftka"; var s2 = "ufl.edu"; var s3 = s1 + "@" + s2; document.write("<a href='mailto:" + s3 + "'>" + s3 + "</a>"); >
Subject: Probability of survival

John P. Pietrzak's post #9489.

I think that the post gives the wrong impression that Ettinger's
calculation is based primarily on intuition.

I have read "Cryonics: Probability of Rescue", and I understood it a bit
differently. It is based on Bayesian statistics, where prior knowledge of
probabilities allows you to get better estimate when you have additional
data.

I am not sure that you need the probabilistic apparatus that Ettinger has
put together for his argument to make sense. He is focusing narrowly on the
question of whether science will find a way to reverse freezing damage. The
argument essentially boils down to the following:

Given that in the past science and technology confounded the experts and
that this will happen in the future with respect to reversing freezing
damage.

I like the argument, especially that it also explains (MY INTERPERTATION)
why  most people shun Cryonics. For somebody who has not put a lot of time
resarching the question, the logical argument is as follows:

Given that in the past many people claimed that they found ways to cheat
death (mostly fountain of youth elixirs and such), and given the fact that
all proved wrong, the probability that Cryonics is worthwhile is very
small. So I should not invest time to understand it better.

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Raphael(Rafi) T. Haftka                      <  var s1 = "haftka"; var s2 = "ufl.edu"; var s3 = s1 + "@" + s2; document.write("<a href='mailto:" + s3 + "'>" + s3 + "</a>");  >
University of Florida                  Phone: (352)-392-9595
Department of Aerospace Engineering,         Fax: (352)-392-7303
Mechanics and Engineering Science         http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~haftka/
Gainesville, FL 32611-6250               (beware, a lot of graphics!)
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