X-Message-Number: 9492 Date: Wed, 15 Apr 1998 15:01:08 -0400 From: Rafi Haftka <> Subject: Probability of survival John P. Pietrzak's post #9489. I think that the post gives the wrong impression that Ettinger's calculation is based primarily on intuition. I have read "Cryonics: Probability of Rescue", and I understood it a bit differently. It is based on Bayesian statistics, where prior knowledge of probabilities allows you to get better estimate when you have additional data. I am not sure that you need the probabilistic apparatus that Ettinger has put together for his argument to make sense. He is focusing narrowly on the question of whether science will find a way to reverse freezing damage. The argument essentially boils down to the following: Given that in the past science and technology confounded the experts and made advances that had been considered impossible, we can be optimistic that this will happen in the future with respect to reversing freezing damage. I like the argument, especially that it also explains (MY INTERPERTATION) why most people shun Cryonics. For somebody who has not put a lot of time resarching the question, the logical argument is as follows: Given that in the past many people claimed that they found ways to cheat death (mostly fountain of youth elixirs and such), and given the fact that all proved wrong, the probability that Cryonics is worthwhile is very small. So I should not invest time to understand it better. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Raphael(Rafi) T. Haftka < > University of Florida Phone: (352)-392-9595 Department of Aerospace Engineering, Fax: (352)-392-7303 Mechanics and Engineering Science http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~haftka/ Gainesville, FL 32611-6250 (beware, a lot of graphics!) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Check the web page of the International Society of Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization (ISSMO) at http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~issmo/ for details about the MicroAV competition! Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=9492