X-Message-Number: 9712 From: Ettinger <> Date: Thu, 14 May 1998 16:07:13 EDT Subject: Polls & Contributions POLLS & CONTRIBUTIONS Although I hesitate to be a wet blanket, perhaps I should offer some reminders regarding the usefulness of Dr. Badger's proposed poll. Over the years we have acquired a long list of ostensible reasons for resistance. We also have acquired a shorter list of what we believe to be the real reasons, most of which come under the general rubric of Cultural Inertia. We have good indications of where to expect better than average recruitment prospects, and where to find worse. (Better: Computer people, Libertarians, physicians, psychologists, men, California, entrepreneurs. Worse: Blue collar, women, Alabama, communists.) So what? How can we use this information? It doesn't help much to know that computer people are PROPORTIONATELY better prospects, because the absolute numbers are so small. It doesn't help much to know that cultural inertia is the problem, because there is no easy solution. We also know that polls can mislead. Remember the Edsel, which was preceded by heavy consumer preference studies. As John de Rivaz has pointed out, even honest answers can mislead, since the respondent may misunderstand his own motivation. The good thing about new ideas (or updates or improvements on old ideas) is that they might work. The bad thing is that, if they disappoint, you are worse off, having squandered energy and enthusiasm which could have been better directed. There is no simple answer, and usually individuals will follow their inclinations in any case. Since polls fall within Dr. Badger's competence, and since a poll might have indirect benefits aside from the specific information targeted, there doesn't seem to be much downside. On the other hand, maybe his energies would be better applied to getting recruits among his colleagues. I can almost guarantee that, if he talks with his colleagues about polls and related questions, the discussion will remain academic and they will ignore any possible personal connection. More generally, in selling, it is often better not to ask the prospective customer why he doesn't want the product. It is often better just to assume--or appear to assume--that he will buy sooner or later. Showing confidence and patience, and frequently mentioning the good things happening to the movement and the people in it, will continue to pay off, gradually. We would like to know what might work better, but we already know what does succeed, even if the success is modest. What works, in general, is not some brilliant new approach, but the dogged application, person to person and day to day, of the tried and true, as Dave Pizer has often said. It isn't glamorous or exhilarating, and it requires effort or/and money, but we KNOW it pays off, and EVERYONE can contribute in some way and some measure. The thing to remember, when tired or discouraged, is that our tide is coming in. Every notable advance in technology--especially biotech--tends to make our thesis more credible, and these advances are coming more and more frequently. There is also going to be a real sea change, becoming perceptible perhaps over the next several years, when it actually starts to permeate the collective consciousness that indefinitely extended life is on the horizon, the prevention and cure of senescence. People will begin to understand that their grandchildren, perhaps their children, will never die of old age or any "natural" cause. Then they will lose their complacency about the "eternal" succession of generations, each making way for the next. To think of yourself as part of this eternal succession is one thing; to know that you may be one of the last dinosaurs is something else altogether. If Dr. Badger decides to proceed, fine. But I suggest that his helpers should not regard that help as a substitute for the ongoing, steady work needed for guaranteed progress. Robert Ettinger Cryonics Institute Immortalist Society http://www.cryonics.org Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=9712